MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Monday (6/22)
After back-to-back days of disappointment, we finally hit a home run prop yesterday. Let’s see if we can land another one with tonight’s slate. Here are three MLB home run props to consider for today’s 13-game slate.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Marcus Semien (+520)
Over the last 30 days, Marcus Semien has a .227 ISO and a wOBA of .404 against 26 left-handed pitchers. He’s also struck out just 7.7% of the time and has hit 35% of fly balls with a 45% hard-hit rate against lefties over the last month.
Tonight, Semien battles Shota Imanaga of the Cubs, who has allowed a .362 ISO and a wOBA of .404 to his last 89 righties. Those righties have hit 29% of fly balls with a 12.9% barrel rate over the last 30 days against Imanaga.
Imanaga is typically a solid pitcher, but he’s really struggled against righties over the last month. Let’s take advantage.
Freddie Freeman (+390)
The Minnesota Twins are slated to pitch Zebby Matthews. The righty has allowed a .233 ISO and a wOBA of .394 against his last 82 lefties. He’s given up 27.4% of line drives, 37.1% of fly balls and a 14.5% barrel rate to lefties over the last 30 days.
In addition, Matthews has struck out just 14.6% of lefties during that stretch.
Matthews is in line to face a ton of lefties in the Dodgers’ lineup, including Freddie Freeman. He has a .283 ISO and a wOBA of .446 against righties over the last 30 days. Freeman has struck out less than 16% of the time and has hit 32% of fly balls against righties.
Give Freeman a shot tonight.
Alec Burleson (+390)
Alec Burleson has a .353 ISO and a wOBA of .454 against his last 74 righties. He’ll battle Merrill Kelly, who has allowed a .290 ISO and a wOBA of .423 against his last 75 lefties.
Kelly has given up 48.1% of hard contact and over 33% of fly balls to lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also given up a 9.3% barrel rate with only 12% of strikeouts and 12% of walks against lefties.
Burleson has hit over 31% of fly balls and 66.7% of hard contact. He also leads the Cardinals with a 14.8% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Ride with Burleson to go long tonight.