MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Monday (6/29)
We’ve got another 13-game slate in the MLB tonight. There are plenty of below-average pitchers on the mound. Let’s attack them. With that said, here are my top MLB home run props to consider for tonight’s games.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kazuma Okamoto (+350)
Kazuma Okamoto has a .385 ISO and a wOBA of .375 against his last 28 lefties. The right-handed slugger has also added 52.9% of fly balls and a team-best 23.5% barrel rate against lefties over the last month.
Meanwhile, Okamoto is set to face Sean Manaea of the New York Mets. Manaea has allowed a .246 ISO and a wOBA of .363 to his last 62 righties faced. He’s also struck out fewer than 13% of righties he’s faced over the last 30 days, while allowing 28.6% of fly balls from righties during that time.
Okamoto has two home runs over the last five days. Let’s see if he can stay hot tonight.
Joey Loperfido (+680)
Joey Loperfido is a lefty with a .226 ISO against righties over the last month. In fact, he’s also added 40.7% of fly balls and an 11.1% barrel rate against righties during that time.
Tonight, Loperfido is set to face Zebby Matthews of the Twins. Matthews has allowed a .239 ISO and a wOBA of .400 to his last 79 lefties. Those lefties have a 15.6% barrel rate and a fly-ball rate over 39%. Matthews has also struck out just 10.1% of lefties over the last month and continues to allow a lot of hard contact.
Let’s give Loperfido a shot, especially at +680 odds.
Heriberto Hernandez (+320)
Heriberto Hernandez has a .450 ISO and a wOBA of .394 against his last 20 lefties. The right-handed power slugger has really started to come on this season. Additionally, he’s hit 43.8% of fly balls against lefties, along with a team-best 18.8% barrel rate against lefties over the last 30 days.
Hernandez will likely face Sean Sullivan of the Rockies, who has allowed a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .407 against his last 44 righties. Sullivan has actually walked more right-handed batters than he’s struck out over the last 30 days. He’s also allowed 40.6% of fly balls.
That plays out well for Hernandez.