MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Monday (7/27)
We’ve got 12 games on the MLB slate today! I’m eying a few targets for tonight’s home run props. Let’s start the week strong with three MLB home run props below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adrian Del Castillo (+520)
Adrian Del Castillo has slugged a .227 ISO and a wOBA of .343 against his last 23 righties. The left-handed designated hitter has also hit nearly 27% of fly balls and a 13.3% barrel percentage during that time against righties.
Tonight, he’ll face Mitch Keller of the Pirates, who has struggled against lefties lately. Over the last month, Keller has allowed a .288 ISO and a wOBA of .389 to his last 64 lefties. Those lefties have added a 12% barrel percentage and 30% of fly balls against Keller. Keller earned just 14% of strikeouts against lefties during that stretch.
Del Castillo will likely hit toward the bottom of the order. But at +520, and after hitting a homer last week, these odds look enticing.
Eugenio Suarez (+390)
We’re riding with another designated hitter tonight. Eugenio Suarez has smashed a .286 ISO and a wOBA of .366 against his last 62 righties as a right-handed batter. His strikeout rate is still very high, but when he makes contact, it’s solid contact. Suarez has hit almost 43% of fly balls, 51.4% of hard contact, and a 14.3% barrel percentage against righties during this time.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Slade Cecconi of the Guardians, who has given up a .217 ISO and a wOBA of .364 to his last 26 righties as a right-handed pitcher. Ceccconi has struck out just 19.2% of righties over the last month and has allowed a 15.8% barrel percentage with about 37% of fly balls allowed.
Let’s give Suarez a chance tonight.
Willson Contreras (+340)
The Red Sox have been on a massive hot streak over the last few weeks. Willson Contreras has been one of the main reasons.
The Boston slugger has hit a .390 ISO and a wOBA of .542 against righties as a right-handed batter over the last 30 days. In addition, he’s tallied a 34.5% fly-ball rate and has earned 79.3% of hard contact, while adding a 24.1% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days.
He’ll compete against Jack Perkins of the Athletics. He’s a righty who has allowed a .300 ISO and a wOBA of .398 to his last 32 righties. Perkins has a strikeout rate below 19% and has allowed 50% of hard contact with 33.3% of fly balls.
This is a fun matchup for Contreras.