MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Monday (8/10)
Griffin Conine ripped two home runs last night! We only needed one, but that was an awesome read to nail a +400 wager. Let’s keep the good vibes going with three more MLB home run props for tonight’s 10-game slate in the MLB.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ceddanne Rafaela (+600)
Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a .278 ISO and a wOBA of .399 against his last 82 righties as a right-handed batter. He’s limited strikeouts to 15.9% during that time against righties and has hit over 31% of fly balls with nearly 30% of line drives against righties.
Tonight, he’s set to battle Jameson Taillon of the Toronto Blue Jays. The former Cubs pitcher has been absolutely awful over the last month. He’s given up a .591 ISO and a wOBA of .596 to his last 24 righties, while also allowing a 17.6% barrel percentage and over 41% of fly balls.
Rafaela isn’t exactly known for his power, but his recent stats suggest that he could have a big night at the plate. Let’s take him to hit a homer at +600 odds.
Jacob Wilson (+1100)
This is a super long shot, but the value is here.
Jacob Wilson has hit a .170 ISO and a wOBA of .336 with only 12.5% of strikeouts over the last month against righties. Meanwhile, he’ll compete against Tampa Bay starter Freddy Peralta, who has allowed a .375 ISO and a wOBA of .489 to his last 38 righties. Those righties have hit a 12.5% barrel percentage, nearly 46% of hard contact, and 29.2% of fly balls.
Ultimately, Wilson does struggle to hit many fly balls and line drives against righties, but against Peralta, his odds have gone up. Let’s ride with a super valuable +1100 line here.
Pete Alonso (+340)
Over the last month, Pete Alonso has a .098 ISO and a wOBA of .286. That’s not exactly ideal for home runs. Yet, he’s set to face his former teammate, Dean Kremer, who is now on the Twins.
Kremer has allowed a .268 ISO and a wOBA of .408 to his last 44 righties as a right-handed pitcher. He’s also given up 46.7% of hard contact and 40% of fly balls. That should work out well for Alonso.
After all, Alonso has still hit over 26% of fly balls, 66.7% of hard contact, and a team-best 14.3% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days. Despite his struggles, we know Alonso is one of the best power hitters in the game. I’m on him at +340.