MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Monday (9/14)
It wasn’t a great weekend for our MLB home run props. That said, we’ll try to get back on track with tonight’s 10-game slate. I’m eyeing some really good spots. Take a peek below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Teoscar Hernandez (+360)
Teoscar Hernandez has smoked a .385 ISO and a wOBA of .539 against his last 33 lefties. He’s also slugged 40% of fly balls during that span, with a 60% hard-hit rate and a 35% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Hernandez will battle lefty Nick Lodolo of the Reds, who has allowed a .284 ISO and a wOBA of .408 to his last 89 righties. Lodolo has struck out just 15.7% of righties and has allowed over 30% of fly balls to right-handed batters over the last month. He’s been below average against righties throughout the season.
Let’s give Hernandez a shot at +360.
Francisco Lindor (+400)
Brandon Young will take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles. The righty has ultimately struggled against lefties over the last month, allowing a .292 ISO and a wOBA of .363 to his last 75 lefties.
Young has even given up 31.4% of fly balls and a 9.8% barrel rate to lefties in the last 30 days.
Tonight, Young battles Francisco Lindor, who will bat from the left side. Lindor has a .301 ISO and a wOBA of .391 against his last 81 righties, while adding 43.6% of fly balls and 58.2% of hard contact.
He’s got plenty of potential to go deep in Pete Alonso’s return to New York.
Lars Nootbaar (+560)
Lars Nootbaar will likely lead things off for the Diamondbacks tonight. The left-handed designated hitter has earned a .255 ISO and a wOBA of .407 against his last 59 righties. Nootbaar has limited strikeouts and has hit over 31% of fly balls with 64.4% of hard contact and an 11.1% barrel rate during that span against righties.
On the other hand, it’ll be Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins. The righty has struggled against lefties throughout the year, but it’s gotten even worse over the last month. Alcantara has given up a .279 ISO and a wOBA of .414 to his last 95 lefties. Those lefties have also hit close to 30% of fly balls and a 9% barrel rate.
Alcantara has also struck out just 9.5% of lefties over the last month, which is down 8% from his season average. Nootbaar is a strong play tonight.