MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (10/3)
We have Divisional Series Game 1 matchups today. Who is going to smack one out of the yard? I’ve got three MLB home run props that I’ll be riding with today.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Tucker (+490)
Kyle Tucker had a pretty poor season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, he got hot at the perfect time. In the last 30 days, Tucker has a .255 ISO and a .394 wOBA against his last 60 righties.
Ultimately, the Braves could go with a bullpen game for Game 1. As of now, it sounds like JR Ritchie will get the bulk of the work. Ritchie has allowed a .375 ISO and a .440 wOBA to his last 28 lefties. He’s also allowed a 23.1% barrel rate and nearly 31% of line drives.
Ritchie has allowed a .212 ISO and a .371 wOBA to 186 lefties this season and has walked over 15% of them. If he falls behind, Tucker should see some good pitches late in the count.
Jonathan Aranda (+420)
In the last 30 days, Jonathan Aranda has crushed right-handed pitching as a left-handed batter. He has a .283 ISO and a .354 wOBA, while adding 33.3% of fly balls and a 66.7% hard-hit rate. He’s also posted a 10% barrel rate in the last month and hit over 23% of line drives against righties.
Tonight, Aranda will face Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, who has struggled against lefties lately. Cole has allowed a .320 ISO and a .405 wOBA to his last 54 lefties, while giving up a 10.8% barrel rate and a 43.2% hard-hit rate.
Let’s take advantage of Cole’s recent struggles.
Jackson Chourio (+490)
In the last 30 days, right-handed slugger Jackson Chourio has a .448 ISO and a .602 wOBA against his last 31 lefties. He’s struck out just 6.5% of the time, while adding over 40% of fly balls and a team-best 14.8% barrel rate against lefties in the last 30 days.
Chourio is set to face Robbie Ray of the San Diego Padres. Ray struggled against righties this season, allowing a .183 ISO and a .315 wOBA, with 36.8% of fly balls allowed. In the last month, he’s earned just 14.6% of strikeouts against righties and allowed 27.3% of fly balls and 33.3% of line drives.
Chourio has been unreal against lefties lately. This is a good matchup for him. At +490, we’ll give him a chance.