MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (4/4)
We’ve got 16 games on today’s MLB slate, scattered throughout the day. I’m eying some good spots for our MLB home run props for tonight. Let’s get right to it.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Altuve (+560)
Since last season, Jose Altuve has smashed a .179 ISO and wOBA of .334 with 15.5% of strikeouts against righties. He’s also hit more than 25% of fly balls during that time.
Altuve tees off against Luis Morales of the Athletics, who allowed a .667 ISO and wOBA of .566 to his first nine righties this season. Morales allowed a .236 ISO and wOBA of .316 to 99 righties last season and gave up a 12.1% barrel rate with 33.3% of fly balls and 42.4% of hard contact.
Morales isn’t much of a threat to start the season. Let’s see if Altuve can send one deep. The Astros could have a field day today, led by Altuve.
Michael Busch (+370)
Michael Busch has slugged a .280 ISO and wOBA of .394 against righties since last season. During that stretch, he’s added nearly 38% of fly balls against righties and has hit 56.1% of hard contact with a 17.9% barrel rate.
Tonight, Busch will battle Slade Cecconi of the Guardians, who allowed a .286 ISO and a wOBA of .492 to his first 18 lefties this season. Those lefties slugged 44% of line drives and had a barrel rate of 11.1%.
Cecconi allowed a .206 ISO to 279 lefties last season, with a 13.2% barrel rate. He also earned only 10% swinging strikes against lefties. Let’s back Busch to go long tonight.
Bryce Harper (+310)
Valente Bellozo will likely pitch tonight for the Colorado Rockies. The Phillies have some familiarity with Bellozo, as he pitched for the Miami Marlins at the beginning of his career.
Either way, Bellozo allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .413 to 170 lefties last season. He struck out 12.9% of lefties and allowed 44.8% of hard contact to those 170 lefties.
Bellozo will battle Bryce Harper, who has smashed a .234 ISO and wOBA of .365 in his last 353 at-bats versus righties dating back to last season. Harper has struck out only 21% of the time against righties during that stretch and has hit 57% of hard contact with a 13.2% barrel rate. He’s also smacked 31% of fly balls during that time.
At +310 odds, let’s back Harper to go long tonight.