MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (5/30)
Whoever tailed our MLB home run props last night had a beautiful night. Kazuma Okamoto (+410) and Dillon Dingler (+540) came through with home runs last night.
Unfortunately, Rafael Devers only hit a triple, so he wasn’t able to give us the sweep on the board. Let’s keep the homers coming. I’ve added three MLB home run bets below.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jake Burger (+490)
Jake Burger has hit a .189 ISO and a wOBA of .354 against righties over the last 30 days. He’s also hit 55.4% of hard contact and almost 29% of line drives against righties during that time.
Meanwhile, Burger is set to face Seth Lugo, who has given up a .269 ISO and a wOBA of .409 to his last 31 righties. Lugo has given up a 12.5% barrel rate with 58.3% of hard contact. He’s also allowed 33.3% of fly balls with just 12.9% of strikeouts.
Lugo has really struggled against righties as a right-handed pitcher. Let’s take advantage and ride with Burger to hit a home run tonight.
Jackson Chourio (+440)
Jackson Chourio has hit a .149 ISO and a wOBA of .333 against righties over the last 30 days as a right-handed batter. He’ll compete against Peter Lambert of the Astros, who is also a righty.
Lambert has struggled, allowing a .188 ISO and a wOBA of .333 against his last 51 righties. Those righties have hit 28.9% of fly balls against Lambert. In addition, Lambert has a 19.4% strikeout rate versus righties.
Chourio strikes out a lot, but against Lambert, he could minimize the strikeouts and potentially hit one out of the yard. After all, Chourio has hit 40.4% of fly balls against righties over the last 30 days. This is a solid matchup for him.
Michael Harris II (+320)
Michael Harris II has hit a .224 ISO and a wOBA of .345 with just 16.9% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. He’ll take on Brady Singer, who has been absolutely awful against lefties during the same time frame.
Singer has allowed a .529 ISO and a wOBA of .565 to his last 56 lefties. Those lefties have hit 35% of fly balls and 30% of hard contact. He’s also allowed a 27.5% barrel rate and has struck out just 21.4% of the lefties he has faced over the last 30 days.
Harris has hit nearly 40% of fly balls and 77.1% of hard contact to lead the Braves’ lineup against righties over the last 30 days. He’s also hit a 16.7% barrel rate against righties. Let’s ride Harris to sock one out of the yard tonight.