MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (6/27)
Thanks to Kody Clemens, we’ve hit a home run prop in three consecutive articles dating back to last weekend. Let’s shoot for four straight tonight. Here are my top MLB home run props to consider for Saturday, June 27th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kody Clemens (+420)
It’ll be Michael Lorenzen on the mound for the Colorado Rockies. He’s allowed a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .372 to his last 53 lefties. Those lefties have a strikeout rate below 19%, and he’s allowed over 33% of fly balls to lefties.
Ultimately, Kody Clemens has a .347 ISO and a wOBA of .395 with just 17.1% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. He came through for us last night and looks just as good on paper today.
Let’s ride it out with Clemens for the second consecutive night.
Freddie Freeman (+400)
Freddie Freeman has destroyed right-handed pitching over the last month. He’s hit a .338 ISO and a wOBA of .500 with just 12.8% of strikeouts against righties during that time. Freeman has also hit 31.6% of fly balls with 52.6% of hard contact and a 12.3% barrel rate against righties.
Tonight, Freeman is slated to face Randy Vasquez of the San Diego Padres. The Padres righty has watched his last 49 lefties hit a .200 ISO with a wOBA of .378. He’s also allowed over 34% of fly balls and 50% of hard contact to lefties.
Freeman has been red-hot against righties. That likely won’t change tonight.
Nolan Schanuel (+870)
Nolan Schanuel has one home run in his last five games. At +870, there’s enough value to consider him to smack one out of the park tonight. The lefty has a low ISO, but he’s hit a .358 wOBA with only 11.4% of strikeouts and 15.9% of walks. He’s patient at the plate and will face Jack Perkins of the Athletics, who has walked 15.9% of lefties over the last 30 days.
If Perkins falls behind, Schanuel could get some quality pitches to slug. Plus, Perkins has allowed 26.9% of fly balls and a .243 ISO with a wOBA of .428 to his last 44 lefties.
Perkins has allowed a .417 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to his last 44 lefties. Give Schanuel a shot at +870.