MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (8/1)
CJ Abrams came through with a blast last night. That was a +390 hit and some profit to close out July. Let’s look for the same results in August. Here are three more MLB home run props for today’s full slate.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Joc Pederson (+370)
Joc Pederson has hit a .367 ISO and a wOBA of .448 against righties over the last month. In addition, he’s hit 34.2% of fly balls and nearly 58% of hard contact with a 10.5% barrel rate during that time against righties.
Today, he’s set to face Ronel Blanco of the Astros. Blanco has only faced 41 batters this season. He’s also seen just 30 lefties. But those 30 lefties have a .417 ISO and a wOBA of .413 with 62.5% of fly balls. Blanco has allowed an 18.8% barrel rate and 75% hard contact to lefties during this opening stretch for him.
Let’s ride with Pederson at +370 odds to go deep.
Drake Baldwin (+440)
It’ll be Miles Mikolas on the mound for the Nationals tonight. The right-hander has allowed a .263 ISO and a wOBA of .417 to his last 40 lefties and has allowed 60% hard contact, along with almost 29% fly balls, to lefties over the last month.
Additionally, Mikolas allowed an 8.6% barrel rate and has struck out just 7.5% of lefties during this stretch.
Lefty Drake Baldwin has crushed right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. He has a .300 ISO and a wOBA of .542 against his last 75 righties, while adding just 10.7% of strikeouts. Baldwin has also hit 38.5% of fly balls and has a 13.5% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Rafael Devers (+340)
We took a chance with Rafael Devers last night, and he didn’t come through. But tonight’s matchup is similar, and I’m back on board with riding Devers.
Devers has a .309 ISO and a wOBA of 430 against righties over the last month. Tonight, he’s set to face Walker Buehler of the Padres, who has allowed a .452 ISO and a wOBA of .461 to his last 49 lefties. Those lefties have hit nearly 42% of fly balls, 50% of hard contact and a 13.9% barrel rate. He’s struck out only 12.2% of lefties during this time.
Meanwhile, Devers has struck out only 16.9% of the time against righties over the last month and has hit nearly 35% of fly balls. I’m giving Devers another chance tonight.