MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (8/22)
Pete Alonso came through last night to cash in a +300 ticket. Let’s keep the momentum going with three more MLB home run props for today’s slate of games. Enjoy.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Griffin Conine (+300)
Over the last month, Griffin Conine has a .361 ISO and a wOBA of .423 against right-handed pitchers as a left-handed batter. Conine has also hit 35% of fly balls with 67.5% of hard contact and a team-leading 22.5% barrel rate against righties over the last month.
Today, Conine will take on Jake Irvin of the Nationals, who has watched his last 54 lefties hit a .239 ISO and a wOBA of .318. Irvin has also allowed 37.5% of fly balls to lefties and has given up over 62% of hard contact. He’s escaped with a .189 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but that won’t continue if he keeps allowing these types of numbers to lefties.
Let’s ride with Conine to slug one.
Junior Caminero (+320)
Even against righties, Junior Caminero has been elite. Over the last 30 days, the right-handed All-Star has smacked a .274 ISO and a wOBA of .365 against righties in the last month. He has a team-best 15.2% barrel rate against righties during that time and has added over 51% of hard contact.
Caminero is set to face Brandon Young of the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Young has allowed a .409 ISO and a wOBA of .511 to his last 47 righties faced. He’s also given up a 21.2% barrel rate to righties and has allowed nearly a 58% hard-hit rate to righties. Most of all, he’s allowed over 42% of fly balls.
That checks out for Caminero. He’s got a real chance to hit one out of the yard against Young tonight.
Joc Pederson (+400)
Joc Pederson has a .266 ISO and a wOBA of .346 against his last 71 righties. Beyond that, he’s socked over 41% of fly balls and has a team-best 67.4% hard-hit rate against righties in the last month. Pederson is a hard-hitting lefty who will battle Ryan Johnson of the Angels.
Johnson is a righty who has struggled against righties and lefties. But specifically, he’s allowed a .226 ISO and a wOBA of .363 to his last 60 lefties. Johnson has given up a barrel rate of 20.5% to lefties in the last month and has allowed 43.2% of fly balls.
Those numbers are a power hitter’s dream. I’m on Pederson to launch one tonight.