MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (8/29)
Our longshots didn’t come through yesterday. Therefore, we’re playing it a little safer with today’s MLB home run props. Check out my top three selections below and let’s cash some tickets.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kazuma Okamoto (+440)
Kade Anderson will take the hill for another start with the Mariners. He’s a top prospect and one of the most talented pitchers in the game. However, he’s still allowed a .231 ISO and a wOBA of .324 to his first 16 righties faced as a left-handed pitcher.
Anderson gave up 45.5% of fly balls and a 9.1% barrel rate against righties and only earned 18.8% of strikeouts. Eventually, Anderson could be in the discussion with the elites. But it might take time.
Meanwhile, Kazuma Okamoto has smashed a .400 ISO and a wOBA of .441 against lefties over his last 33 plate appearances against them. He’s also hit 54.5% of fly balls and has a 22.7% barrel rate. Okamoto looks great on paper.
Mike Yastrzemski (+520)
It hasn’t been the season the Braves were hoping for from Mike Yastrzemski. Yet, he’s still performed well analytically against righties over the last month. He’s hit a .275 ISO and a wOBA of .346 against his last 58 righties. Additionally, he’s socked 27% of fly balls, 62.2% of hard contact and a 10.8% barrel rate over the last 30 days against righties.
Today, Yastrzemski will take on Ryan Feltner of the Colorado Rockies. Feltner has given up a .242 ISO and a wOBA of .383 against his last 80 lefties. Those lefties have hit over 28% of fly balls and have walked more than they’ve struck out.
Yastrzemski should get some solid hitter counts to make some magic happen.
Ezequiel Duran (+750)
Ezequiel Duran has hit a .212 ISO and a wOBA of .421 against his last 42 lefties. He’s kept strikeouts down while adding 33.3% of fly balls with 66.7% of hard contact. Beyond that, Duran has launched a home run this week and is still +750 to hit a homer.
Duran will face Shane Drohan of the Brewers, who has given up a .180 ISO and a wOBA of .401 to his last 73 righties. Drohan continues to fall behind in counts and has allowed 43.5% of hard contact and an 8.7% barrel rate.
This is a good spot for the No. 5 hitter in the Rangers’ lineup.