MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (8/8)
We put up a goose egg last night with our home run props. Let’s turn the page and move on to today’s slate. Below, you’ll find three MLB home run props for today’s slate of games. I’m feeling good about these selections!
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Royce Lewis (+370)
Royce Lewis has hit a .381 ISO and a wOBA of .472 against his last 23 left-handed pitchers. Tonight, he’s set to face Robert Gasser of the Milwaukee Brewers, who has allowed his last 59 righties to hit a .232 ISO and a wOBA of .361.
Gasser has allowed over 32% of fly balls and has struck out just 18.6% of righties over the last month.
On the other hand, Lewis has hit a team-best 22.2% barrel percentage against lefties in the last 30 days. He’s been one of the most consistent hitters in the Twins lineup against lefties. Therefore, we’ll take him to add a home run at +370 odds.
Nolan Arenado (+830)
Nolan Arenado has had a power surge this season. However, despite his recent success, he’s still +830 to hit a home run tonight. In fact, Arenado has hit a .183 ISO and a wOBA of .346 against his last 72 righties this season.
He’ll face Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers, who has allowed a .268 ISO and a wOBA of .379 to his last 46 righties faced. Those righties have hit over 33% of fly balls. They’ve also struck out just 10.9% of the time. Yamamoto has struggled analytically against righties. Arenado can certainly take advantage. Arenado has limited ground balls to below 40% over the last month against righties, so if he puts the ball in play, it’ll likely be in the air.
At +830, we’ve got to give Arenado a try here.
Cedric Mullins (+520)
Cedric Mullins has hit a .271 ISO against his last 55 righties as a left-handed batter. His average isn’t great this season, but he’s still shown off some power. Mullins has hit more fly balls than ground balls against righties in the last month and has added over 42% hard contact during that span.
Tonight, he’ll take on George Kirby of the Mariners, who has allowed a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .338 to his last 34 lefties. Those 34 lefties have hit 30.8% of fly balls and have struck out just 17.6% of the time.
Kirby has also induced only 26.9% of ground balls against lefties over the last 3o days. Mullins has good enough power to take advantage.