MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (9/12)
There’s another full slate of MLB games on the horizon today. Therefore, I’ve added three MLB home run props to ride for today. Check them out below and tail along if you’d like.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Smith (+1000)
Josh Smith has a .545 ISO and a wOBA of .509 against his last 28 righties. The left-handed batter has added 46.7% of fly balls and a 13.3% barrel rate against those righties.
Meanwhile, he’ll face Kyle Bradish of the Orioles, who has allowed a .304 ISO and a wOBA of .489 to his last 79 lefties. Bradish has given up 51.7% of hard contact and has only earned 13.9% of strikeouts against lefties. He’s allowed a 10.3% barrel rate to lefties over the last month and over 36% of fly balls.
Smith isn’t a notable power slugger. But he’s hit well against righties, and at +1000, it’s hard to ignore his potential.
Ryan Jeffers (+560)
The Guardians will likely turn to Gavin Williams for the bulk of today’s game against the Twins. Williams has allowed a .362 ISO and a wOBA of .460 against his last 55 righties. He’s also allowed 60% of hard contact during that stretch to righties and has allowed 33.3% of fly balls. Williams is a righty himself, but he’s struggled more against righties all year.
Today, Williams is taking on Ryan Jeffers of the Twins, who is also a righty. Jeffers has a .320 ISO and a wOBA of .412 against his last 58 righties. Additionally, Jeffers has hit over 27% of fly balls and a 17.5% barrel rate against righties.
Let’s ride the cleanup hitter at +560.
Sal Stewart (+400)
It sounds like Kyle Harrison will get another start for the Brewers. The lefty has had his ups and downs this season. Lately, he’s struggled against righties, allowing a .451 ISO and a wOBA of .550 to his last 61 righties.
Those righties have struck out below 20% of the time. He’s also allowed 50% of hard contact to righties in the last month, while allowing a 20% barrel rate.
Ultimately, the Reds have a bunch of powerful righties. Sal Stewart has some great analytics. He has a .194 ISO and a wOBA of .362 against his last 36 lefties. Beyond that, he’s added 37.5% of fly balls against lefties and 31.2% of line drives over the last month.
Stewart has been tearing it up all year. He likely won’t stop tonight.