MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (9/19)
I’m eyeing multiple MLB home run props for today’s MLB slate. We didn’t hit anything yesterday, but I’m feeling confident with my selections for today. Take a look and consider tailing below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carter Jensen (+400)
Carter Jensen has smacked a .466 ISO and a wOBA of .532 against his last 71 righties. He’s hit 45.7% of fly balls against righties while batting at the top of the order. He’s added a team-best 21.7% barrel rate against righties in the last month and has hit 54.3% of hard contact during that stretch.
Meanwhile, Jensen will take on Bubba Chandler of the Pirates, who has allowed a .233 ISO and a wOBA of .353 to his last 70 lefties. Chandler has also given up 34.1% of fly balls, more than the ground balls induced in the last 30 days against lefties.
Beyond that, Chandler has allowed 54.5% of hard contact and a 9.1% barrel rate. Let’s try Jensen today.
Alex Bregman (+450)
There’s probably not a single player hotter than Alex Bregman against lefties right now. In the last 30 days, he has a .591 ISO and a wOBA of .571 against his last 26 lefties. Additionally, he’s socked 50% of fly balls and a team-best 15% barrel rate against lefties in the last month.
Bregman faces Nick Lodolo of the Reds, who has allowed a .320 ISO and a wOBA of .407 to his last 90 righties. Those 90 righties have hit 31.7% of fly balls and 55.6% of hard contact with a 12.7% barrel rate.
Bregman should be able to take advantage.
Cole Carrigg (+630)
Bryce Miller will get the start for the Seattle Mariners tonight. The right-hander has struggled against lefties, allowing a .342 ISO and a wOBA of .449 to his last 44 lefties. Miller hasn’t struck out lefties at a high clip and has also allowed nearly 27% of fly balls with a 13.3% barrel rate.
Miller is set to take on Cole Carrigg of the Rockies, who has a .262 ISO and a wOBA of .339 against his last 65 righties. The switch-hitter will bat from the left side, where he’s hit nearly 44% of fly balls over the last month.
Carrigg also has a 63.4% hard-hit rate and a 9.8% barrel rate. Also, he’s added just 26.8% of ground balls, so he’ll likely put the ball in the air when he puts it in play.
I’m taking Carrigg to go deep.