MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (9/26)
There are just two days left in the MLB regular season. We won’t be able to take advantage of poor pitching in the playoffs nearly as much as we can right now in the regular season. Here are three MLB home run props to begin the weekend. Check them out below.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carter Jensen (+340)
Carter Jensen has a .508 ISO and a wOBA of .549 against his last 70 righties. That’s a strong sample size and a ridiculous ISO number over the last 30 days against righties.
Jensen will face Tanner Bibee of the Guardians, who has allowed a .179 ISO and a wOBA of .370 to his last 75 lefties. The right-hander has also allowed 40% of hard contact and a .340 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties in the last month. Even worse, he’s added just 16% of strikeouts during that time against lefties.
Jensen has hit 43.2% of fly balls against righties over the last 30 days, while also posting a team-best 22.7% barrel rate against righties. Let’s roll with Jensen.
Randal Grichuk (+360)
The Colorado Rockies will give Jose Quintana his final start of the season. The lefty hasn’t been good against righties this season, allowing a .187 ISO and a wOBA of .350 to 152 righties.
Randal Grichuk is a righty who can take advantage. He has a .242 ISO and a wOBA of .422 against his last 37 lefties, while only striking out 16.2% of the time. He’s also launched 35.7% of fly balls and has added 89.3% of hard contact against lefties in the last month. He’s like a machine against lefties.
Ride it out with Grichuk at +360.
Manny Machado (+420)
It sounds like Ryne Nelson will get the start for the Diamondbacks tonight. The righty has been bad against other righties all season, allowing a .214 ISO and a wOBA of .348 against 174 righties.
Additionally, he’s allowed nearly 40% of fly balls to righties and 51.6% of hard contact, along with a 10.5% barrel rate.
The Padres have a few notable righties that can do damage. Manny Machado’s numbers line up the best. Machado has slugged a .203 ISO and a wOBA of .347 against his last 81 righties. He’s patient at the plate and has hit 27.6% of fly balls with 41.4% of hard contact against righties in the last month.
I’m on Machado to hit one deep at +420.