MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Saturday (9/5)
Last night, Bo Bichette came through with a blast, cashing in a +470 wager for us. Let’s keep that momentum going with my favorite three MLB home run props for today’s MLB slate. Enjoy!
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Esmerlyn Valdez (+440)
Esmerlyn Valdez has added a .265 ISO and a wOBA of .330 against his last 41 lefties as a right-handed batter. The strikeouts have been very high during this stretch, too, but he’s facing Yusei Kikuchi of the Angels, who hasn’t earned a high rate of strikeouts against righties recently.
In fact, Kikuchi has earned just 17.1% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. He’s also given up a .484 ISO and a wOBA of .424 to his last 35 righties, while giving up a 15.4% barrel percentage and 65.4% of hard contact.
Valdez has hit nearly 47% of fly balls against lefties over the last 30 days and has added a team-best 73.3% hard contact rate and a 13.3% barrel percentage against lefties.
We’re rolling with Valdez here.
Eugenio Suarez (+390)
Dustin May will get the start for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. The right-hander has been terrible against other righties in the last month, giving up a .333 ISO and a wOBA of .434 to his last 34 righties. Additionally, he’s earned only 8.8% of strikeouts against those righties and has allowed a 17.9% barrel percentage with over 46% of hard contact.
Eugenio Suarez has hit a .355 ISO and a wOBA of .411 against his last 77 righties and has even hit two homers over his last five games. Suarez has hit almost 39% of fly balls and a 13.6% barrel percentage against righties in the last 30 days.
This is a tremendous matchup for the right-handed power bat. Let’s take advantage.
Josh Bell (+440)
Josh Bell has knocked a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .461 with only 6.1% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month. The switch-hitting designated hitter has also hit nearly 37% of fly balls and a team-best 10% barrel percentage against lefties in the last month.
Bell will battle Anthony Kay of the White Sox, a lefty who is allowing a .276 ISO and a wOBA of .413 to his last 85 righties. Kay has given up 57.1% of hard contact and 27% of fly balls, while adding only 15.3% of strikeouts against righties in the last month.
Look for Bell to have a good showing tonight.