MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Sunday (6/14)
After nailing Jake Bauers (+340) on Friday, Pete Alonso came through last night with a home run to cash a +350 bet. Can we enjoy success in three consecutive days? Here are my top MLB home run props for today’s full slate in the MLB.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nolan Arenado (+390)
Nolan Arenado has a .214 ISO and a wOBA of .316 with only 10% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month. The Arizona third baseman has hit 53.8% of fly balls and 61.5% of hard contact against lefties. However, he hasn’t been too productive against lefties, despite these analytics.
That should change soon.
Arendado battles lefty Andrew Abbott of the Reds today. He is allowing a .197 ISO and a wOBA of .335 to his last 78 righties. Abbott has given up a 10.7% barrel rate with more walks than strikeouts. He’s also allowed almost 59% of hard contact with 28.6% of fly balls.
Arenado looks great analytically.
Ryan Ward (+490)
Ryan Ward has been great against right-handed pitching over the last month. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder has a .423 ISO and a wOBA of .377 against his last 27 righties. He’s hit over 29% of fly balls, 52.9% of hard contact and a solid 10% barrel rate against righties.
The lefty will take on Erick Fedde of the White Sox, who has given up a .209 ISO and a wOBA of .400 to his last 49 lefties. Fedde has also added just 5.7% of swinging strikes against lefties, while allowing 60% of hard contact.
Ward has some good numbers against righties. At +490 odds, he’s a worthwhile gamble.
Alec Burleson (+330)
Over the last five games, Alec Burleson has come through with four home runs. His streak has a chance to continue today against Taj Bradley.
Bradley has allowed a .227 ISO and a wOBA of .376 to his last 53 lefties. Those lefties have an 18.2% barrel rate with 54.5% of hard contact against him. Bradley has also earned just 24.2% of ground balls and has walked over 15% of batters.
If Burleson remains patient, he’ll get some quality pitches to hit. He’s added a .343 ISO and a wOBA OF .486 with only 20% of strikeouts. He’s also launched 34.6% of fly balls, 67.3% of hard contact and a 13.5% barrel rate.
Burleson is in a good position to continue his remarkable week at the plate.