MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Sunday (7/12)
There were a bunch of home runs last night; however, none were hit for us. Let’s finish off the weekend with a much-needed home run prop. Here are three MLB home run props that I’m rolling with today.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Luis Garcia (+430)
Luis Garcia has posted a .533 ISO and a .555 wOBA against his last 80 righties. He’s struck out 16.2% of the time during that stretch against righties and has hit 27.4% of fly balls with 54.8% of hard contact. He’s also leading the Nationals with a 19.4% barrel rate against righties over the last month.
Garcia will face off against Will Warren of the Yankees, who has allowed a .296 ISO and a wOBA of .408 to his last 61 lefties. Those lefties have hit 26.1% of fly balls and have a strikeout rate below 15%. Warren has also allowed an 8.7% barrel rate and over 41% of hard contact.
I’m rolling with Garcia to go long today.
Elly De La Cruz (+300)
The Chicago Cubs are set to pitch lefty Matthew Boyd today. He has allowed a .205 ISO and a wOBA of .370 to his last 44 righties. He’s also given up an 18.8% barrel rate to righties and has allowed 50% hard contact, with 31.2% fly balls. Boyd has only struck out 15.9% of righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Elly De La Cruz has a .429 ISO and a wOBA of .571 against lefties over the last month. The switch-hitter will bat from the right side, where he’s added a 60% hard-hit rate and a 33.3% barrel rate.
De La Cruz can get a hold of one against Boyd.
Alec Burleson (+450)
Alec Burleson already hit a homer earlier this week. He’ll look to add another one when he faces JR Ritchie. Burleson has a .265 ISO and a wOBA of .384 against his last 76 righties. He’s also launched over 28% of fly balls and has done a great job minimizing strikeouts against righties. He’s also added 75.4% of hard contact against righties in the last month.
Meanwhile, Ritchie has allowed a .220 ISO and a wOBA of .338 to his last 48 lefties. Those lefties have hit over 39% of fly balls and a 14.3% barrel rate. Ritchie has also allowed over 57% of hard contact to lefties over the last month.
I’ll finish the first half riding with Burleson.