MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (4/23)
That’s now two straight profitable MLB home run props articles for us after Pete Alonso (+328) went yard in the first inning yesterday.
I look to build off the momentum of yesterday’s +1.18-unit day of profit with three more home runs prop picks, one of which pays out juicy +538 odds.
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Thursday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Matt Olson (+362)
Few players have dominated at an opposing ballpark for as long as Matt Olson has had success in road games against the Washington Nationals.
Olson’s 1.165 OPS is the highest OPS by a visiting player at Nationals Park since it opened in 2008 (min. 125 PA). He entered Wednesday having hit 13 home runs while driving in 35 runs in 30 career games at Nationals Park. And then he did this yesterday.
Since the start of 2021 (min. 1500 PA), Olson ranks first in games played, fifth in home runs, second in RBI, 10th in slugging, third in total bases, and seventh in WAR.
Olson is also in his slightly better platoon split while facing Washington righty Cade Cavalli. Since 2021, Olson has slashed .261/.333/.505 with a 129 wRC+ against southpaws. But against right-handed pitchers, Olson has a .264/.368/.518 slash line and 141 wRC+.
Lastly, among players that have played a minimum of 30% of their games at first base since the start of 2023, Olson leads in WAR with an 18.8 rating.
Kerry Carpenter (+465)
Brewers righty Brandon Sproat has allowed four homers in his four appearances this year, equating to a troubling 2.1 HR/9 rate.
Sproat has done a decent job preventing hard contact, as he ranks in the 22nd and 28th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrels, respectively. But he has also been lit up by left-handed batters, allowing a .357/.500/.643 slash line in that split, which pales in comparison to the damage righties have done (.242/.306/.455).
Kerry Carpenter has hit all four of his home runs off of righties. While many would say he is struggling to this point, his 113 OPS+ is only slightly worse than his 114 OPS+ last year when he finished with a career-high 26 home runs.
Brandon Nimmo (+538)
From 2018-21, Brandon Nimmo averaged 19 home runs per 162 games. From 2022-23 that number increased to 21, while improving even more to 25 from 2024-25.
So far this season, Nimmo is on pace for a career-best 173 OPS+ (tied for 11th among MLB qualifiers).
As far as his plate discipline goes, Nimmo owns a 54.1% in-zone% (4th-highest in MLB, min. 1750 pitches seen). He is also on pace this season for career-highs in swing%, zone swing %, middle/middle swing %, and chase%. That combination of patience in waiting for his pitch while being more aggressive in the strike zone makes Nimmo a great value play to go deep for the fifth time this season, even if he bats leadoff in the Rangers lineup.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.