MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (4/30)
From an MLB home run props perspective, several interesting things have happened already this week. The Milwaukee Brewers snapped a seven-game team home run drought, their longest since 1999.
In addition, Pete Crow-Armstrong snapped an 18-game home run drought, while Aaron Judge tied the MLB lead with 12 home runs, moving into the top 75 in MLB history with 380 career home runs in the process.
Thursday’s MLB slate is bigger than expected with two doubleheaders, totaling 11 games. I’ve scoured the data to identify my three best MLB home run bets.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Matt Olson (+508)
Detroit Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez has only allowed two home runs this year, but both have come on the road, where his ERA balloons to 5.06. And while some might be scared of opposing Valdez in a lefty-lefty split, know that he allows a higher batting average to left-handed batters, with the slugging percentages being comparable against righties.
Matt Olson is the only active player on today’s slate with multiple home runs in fewer than 17 at-bats against their opposing starting pitcher. Olson has produced a .313/.421/.688 slash line with two of his five hits in 16 at-bats against Valdez leaving the yard.
Olson has avoided long home run droughts of late, homering at least once in seven of the last eight series. He has also raised his OPS from .668 at the start of the month to an eye-popping 1.018 as we end April.
Oneil Cruz (+335)
Matthew Liberatore has curious reverse splits as a southpaw, allowing a .387/.424/.839 slash line to left-handed batters, compared to a .267/.327/.433 slash line to righties. As such, half of his eight home runs allowed have come against lefties despite only facing them in 31 at-bats (59 fewer at-bats than against righties).
The Pirates have gone from a team that finished 30th in the Majors in home runs last season (31 fewer than the 29th-ranked team) to the top half of the league in home runs entering yesterday, thanks to a bunch of offseason acquisitions. But Oneil Cruz has fed off that power surge as well, and he took it in his better-hitting split, facing a left-handed pitcher.
Cruz is slashing .351/.385/.730 against southpaws and .214/.290/.429 against right-handed pitchers this season, with four of his nine home runs coming against lefties (in 47 fewer at-bats). Thus, I’m playing the percentages with a home run-prone pitcher against a batter who has homered in three of the last six games, making Cruz a great value play.
Elly De La Cruz (+307)
Is Elly De La Cruz in for a 40/40 season? He is the first player since 1900 with 10+ home runs and eight or more stolen bases before May. And before yesterday’s flop against the Rockies, he was batting .444 with a 1.214 OPS and 10 extra-base hits in his last 16 games against the Rockies.
Sal Stewart and De La Cruz have carried the Reds’ offense. As of a week ago yesterday, De La Cruz and Stewart had combined to slash .287/.368/.600 with 16 home runs, a 160 wRC+ and a 2.4 fWAR. The rest of the team to that point was slashing .183/.283/.273 with 11 home runs, a 57 wRC+ and a -1.7 fWAR.
De La Cruz has homered in five of the last six series, and his six games with multiple home runs are the most in Reds history by a switch-hitter. He ranks ninth in fWAR among position players since the start of 2024, and is a good bet to tag Michael Lorenzen for a homer today.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.