MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (5/28)

Yesterday’s MLB home run props column was our most profitable of the season, as we turned in a huge profit when we cashed +328 and +355 plays with Julio Rodriguez’s and Brandon Lowe’s three-run blasts.

With just six total games on Thursday’s MLB getaway day slate, I have narrowed my wagers to my two favorite plays, one of which backs a player tied for the second-most home runs hit this season.

Read on for my top MLB home run bets for Thursday.

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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Pete Alonso (+344)

No hitter playing today comes close to the sample size of at-bats that Pete Alonso has against Patrick Corbin. Alonso has a .365/.460/.712 slash line in 52 at-bats against the southpaw, with five of his 19 hits leaving the yard. Overall, his eight extra-base hits in the head-to-head matchups and 12:10 K:BB ratio suggest Alonso should be in store for more success.

Alonso is slugging .540 with seven home runs over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Corbin has allowed the two highest pull air percentages of his career over the last two seasons, and that plays well for right-handed batters, given the dimensions of Orioles Park at Camden Yards.

While Corbin is on pace to finish a season with a HR/9 rate better than 1.0 for the first time since 2018, his .331 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) suggests Alonso is likely to do damage again when he puts the bat on the ball.

Yordan Alvarez (+321)

Yordan Alvarez has gotten the better of Nathan Eovaldi in their head-to-head matchups, slashing .400/.444/.667 in 15 career at-bats, with one of his six hits being a home run.

Houston's offense recently endured a stretch where it averaged fewer than two runs per game while batting .186 as a team, going 4-8 in 12 games. But Alvarez has still remained consistent from a home run standpoint with six long balls in May.

That is impressive in spite of his slugging rate plummeting from .905 in March to .701 in April to .475 this month. Three of Eovaldi's highest pull air percentages have come within the last four seasons, and he ranks in the bottom half of all qualified starting pitchers in barrel rate. 

Thus, we’re getting great value on a player who has homered five times in the last three games.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.