MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (5/7)
From an MLB home run props perspective, several interesting things have happened already this week. The Los Angeles Dodgers snapped a six-game team home run drought, their longest since 2014. In addition, the San Francisco Giants snapped a six-game losing streak and a six-game home run drought in the same game with a Casey Schmitt long ball. Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson became the 166th player to join the 300-home run club.
I’ve scoured the data to identify my three best MLB home run bets for Thursday’s 10-game slate.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Aaron Judge (+239)
Yes, it’s a boring, safe and uncreative first play. But one cannot ignore the red-hot Aaron Judge, entering this series with a homer in five of his last eight games, while recording a 1.528 OPS and driving in 10 runs in that span. His last home run was also the 382nd of his career. That tied him with Frank Howard, Ryan Howard and Jim Rice for the 71st-most in MLB history.
Judge has an outstanding track record against MacKenzie Gore, with two of his three hits in seven at-bats going for home runs. The lefty's fly ball rate is also on pace to be 26.4% or higher for the third time in five seasons, while his 1.3 HR/9 rate is a career worst thus far.
CJ Abrams (+512)
CJ Abrams’ only hit against Simeon Woods Richardson in five at-bats is a home run. But plenty more could be in his future as the sample size of at-bats grows, especially since the Minnesota righty has allowed at least one home run in all seven of his starts this season, including multiple homers in just 4.2 innings against Toronto his last time out.
Left-handed hitters are slashing .306/.375/.486 against Woods Richardson. And while that slugging rate is 130 points lower than what righties have accumulated off of him, Woods Richardson has still allowed three home runs in 72 at-bats in that split.
Abrams is on pace for a career year, buoyed by a 71st percentile barrel rate and 85th percentile xSLG. I expect him to go deep for the ninth time this season.
Jackson Merrill (+585)
Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore has been tormented by left-handed hitters this season. He has allowed a .341/.364/.707 slash line with half of his home runs allowed coming in that split (albeit in 59 fewer at-bats). Liberatore’s 5.84 FIP (on pace for a career worst) is not helped by his troubling 35.2% fly ball rate.
Jackson Merrill snapped a 16-game home run drought with a solo blast on Monday. But his only hit in a small six at-bat sample size against Liberatore was a home run. The fact that he is in the top third of all players in xSLG makes him a great value play in an enticing lefty-versus-lefty matchup.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.