MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (6/25)
New York Yankees slugger Paul Goldschmidt faces a southpaw for the second straight day, and his MLB home run props are a must-add to the day’s betting portfolio after he took Tarik Skubal deep twice yesterday. Goldschmidt might be the oldest position player in the league, but he has turned back the clock in a big way of late.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, June 25th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Casey Schmitt (+466)
Casey Schmitt entered yesterday with seven consecutive multi-hit games. That was one shy of the franchise record, shared by four players, and last achieved by Bill Terry in 1934. With that kind of torrid hitting, Schmitt should be hitting many more home runs than the one he has belted in the last 14 games.
Schmitt has been consistent no matter the opponent, going yard at least once in seven of the previous 10 series that have been at least three games in length. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in xSLG and the 91st percentile in launch angle sweet spot percentage. Schmitt’s .372 batting average and .934 OPS against southpaws make him a great candidate to go deep against Jeffrey Springs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+335)
Prior to yesterday’s doubleheader against the Mets, Pete Crow-Armstrong had belted five home runs in a six-game stretch. And he also entered with a career-high 24-game on-base streak, during which he batted .410 with 20 extra-base hits (12 home runs) and 20 RBI.
Crow-Armstrong gets a tasty matchup against Freddy Peralta, who has struggled mightily in his first season with the Mets. Peralta is coming off allowing a career-high 10 earned runs, and has pitched to a 7.18 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his last seven starts.
Crow-Armstrong is 6-for-17 with a home run against Peralta. He is my best bet to homer from this game, but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing a slew of Cubs sluggers.
Paul Goldschmidt (+437)
By several metrics, Paul Goldschmidt has been the best batter in the league against left-handed pitching. Prior to him going deep off the best southpaw in the American League twice in Tarik Skubal yesterday, Goldschmidt had an MLB-best 237 wRC+ against lefties. The gap between him and the next-closest hitter (Corbin Carroll) is bigger than the gap between the second and eighth-best hitters.
Goldschmidt also entered yesterday with a league-leading .740 slugging rate against southpaws, and he was fourth in ISO and eighth in batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
Connelly Early has allowed multiple home runs in four of his last seven starts. In addition, his 2.08 HR/9 rate in that span is the fourth-worst among qualified pitchers.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.