MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (6/4)
Yordan Alvarez took over the American League home run lead with his 21st blast of the season on Tuesday, while Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami is stuck on 20 while serving a stint on the injured list (IL). There have been other noteworthy happenings from an MLB home run props perspective this week, like the Milwaukee Brewers scoring their third-most runs ever in a game without hitting a home run (16) in a win on Monday.
One of my three top MLB home run picks backs a Brewers slugger in spite of that impressive trend, and the fact that the team has hit the fewest home runs in the league, as they face a Giants pitching staff that has been the worst in baseball recently.
Read on for my top MLB home run bets for Thursday.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Gunnar Henderson (+421)
The Boston Red Sox have used an opener for Brayan Bello's last two outings, and he has responded in his "reliever" role with zero earned runs allowed and a 10:1 K:BB ratio over his last 12 innings. But this recent change does not erase the fact that Bello posted a 9.68 ERA as a once-full-time starter this year, striking out 12% of batters and walking 11% of batters over his first nine starts.
In Bello’s poor nine-start stretch to begin the season, he allowed 10 home runs, including a season-high five in one start against the Orioles. Gunnar Henderson accounted for one of those long balls with a 410-foot lead-off blast, and he is now 7-for-22 with two home runs and a 1.127 OPS against the righty.
Jake Bauers (+458)
Quietly, Jake Bauers ranks fifth in wRC+ (minimum 70 plate appearances) since May 4th, coinciding with a stretch where the Brewers had the best record in baseball. And Bauers’ career arc and splits from year-to-year are eye-popping:
- 2018-24: 529 games, .208/.302/.361 slash line, 16 home runs/162 game pace, 84 wRC+
- 2025: 96 games, .235/.353/.399 slash line, 13 home runs/162 game pace, 114 wRC+
- 2026: 52 games, .270/.351/.486, 31 home runs/162 game pace, 137 wRC+
From May 4th to June 2nd, Bauers was tied for sixth in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage (OBP) and 12th in slugging rate. He is one of four players in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate and chase rate. His .414 average against non-fastball pitches (minimum 30 plate appearances) is the second-best mark in the Majors in that span.
Yordan Alvarez (+270)
Since my first two home run picks were not all that chalky and still provided great value from an odds perspective, forgive me for offering a much more obvious wager on the American League home run leader with my third and final play.
Entering play yesterday, Yordan Alvarez had belted six home runs and totaled 11 RBI in his last eight games. That put him on pace for 56 homers and 112 RBI, both of which would trump his previous career-highs of 37 home runs in 2022 and 104 RBI in 2021.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.