MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (7/30)
With just 10 games on a small Thursday MLB slate, and six of them being played between division rivals, I’m limiting my MLB home run props to just two plays, with one from each of those divisional battles.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, July 30th.
See Today’s Full Best Home Run Bets Board >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Seiya Suzuki (+559)
Seiya Suzuki is tearing the cover off the ball this month, logging 13 extra-base hits with 21 runs batted in over 22 games. Suzuki is homerless in 12 career at-bats against Andre Pallante. But two of his six hits have gone for extra bases, adding to an impressive 1.238 OPS, the highest of any Cubs batter who has 10+ at-bats against the righty.
Pallante has allowed a home run and a .325 opponents’ batting average in two starts against the Cubs, and the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in fly-ball rate over its recent poor 21-game stretch.
Even though Pallante is considered a groundball specialist with a 95th percentile groundball rate, and just one home run allowed over his last seven starts, he also entered this season with a .343/.413/.552 slash line allowed in 99 combined at-bats to current Cubs hitters.
Suzuki has homered at least once in five of the last eight series, so I'm banking on him adding to that streak this afternoon.
Luis Garcia Jr. (+405)
The Nationals went with a home run yesterday, but entered the day with an MLB-best 159 long balls, after hitting 161 home runs last season. That puts their franchise record of 231 home runs set in 2019 within reach.
Luis Garcia Jr. had an RBI single for his only hit yesterday, which snapped his streak of three straight multi-hit games with at least one extra-base hit in each game.
The Nationals slugger has hit six home runs with nine extra-base hits and 17 RBI in 21 games this month, and looks to improve upon his impressive .304 batting average against the Braves this season.
Garcia is 2-for-7 in his career against Grant Holmes, and the Braves righty allowed two home runs in his only start against the Nationals this season.
Holmes’ ninth percentile average exit velocity and 29th percentile barrel rate allowed are big reasons why his xERA is nearly a full run worse than his actual ERA.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.