MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (7/9)
On Tuesday, Shohei Ohtani helped cash our MLB home run props betting slips. He became the 18th active player and the first Japanese-born player to join the 300-home run club. His blend of power and speed is even more rare, as he became the second-fastest player (1,121 games) to reach 300 home runs and 150 stolen bases in MLB history.
Alas, Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers have an off day today, so it is three other sluggers I have my eye on in this unusually loaded 13-game Thursday slate leading up to next week’s All-Star break. We’re looking to build off our best day of the season yesterday, when we turned in over eight units of profit with our Spencer Torkelson and Kyle Karros wagers.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, July 9th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ryan O’Hearn (+640)
This may be the absolute worst time to jump on the Ryan O’Hearn bandwagon, as his home run odds are much lower than likely what they would’ve been before his recent hot streak. But the baseball must look like a beach ball to the slugger, which is why I’m backing him despite his 0-for-3 career numbers against Bryce Elder.
O’Hearn logged his first career three-homer game on Tuesday, and his 10 RBI are the most in a game in Pirates franchise history since the stat became official in 1920. In the process, O’Hearn became the 17th player with at least 10 RBI in a game since 1900, and was two shy of the MLB record set by Mark Whiten with 12 in 1993.
On the heels of that impressive performance, O’Hearn had five home runs and 14 RBI in his last two home games entering Wednesday. His home run odds are still a great value when facing Elder, who has allowed at least one home run in five straight starts (and seven of eight), with two multi-home run games in his last three outings.
Jac Caglianone (+417)
Jac Caglianone added his name to the list of next week’s Home Run Derby participants, and I expect him to showcase that power in an early afternoon game against the New York Mets while overcoming a lefty-lefty matchup against Sean Manaea.
Manaea has allowed a .290/.343/.525 slash line against current Royals hitters, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez combining for all four home runs he’s surrendered in that split. It’s time for Caglianone to add his name to that list, while he actually boasts a better home run rate against southpaws than righties.
Caglianone has seen a great resurgence since the calendar hit June. He played 54 games prior to June 1st and slashed .236/.303/.382 with five home runs, 11 RBI and an 89 wRC+.
In the next 30 games after June 1st, Caglianone’s slash line numbers improved to .289/.351/.562 with nine home runs, 22 RBI and a 149 wRC+. He entered yesterday tied for the ninth-most home runs hit in the Majors since the start of June.
Caglianone has a great chance to jump on a first pitch. His .500 average on first pitches is the third-highest in the Majors (minimum 25 plate appearances). Caglianone also owns the eighth-highest first-pitch swing rate at 5.9% (minimum 200 plate appearances).
Jake Burger (+422)
Since my first two home run picks centered around one of the hottest sluggers in the sport over the last week and a Home Run Derby participant, I opted for more value with my last play. Jake Burger is the only current healthy Rangers hitter to have homered off of Reid Detmers in his career, so he fits nicely as a value play.
This wager is more of a fade of the Angels as a whole. They entered yesterday tied for a season-long seven-game losing streak, having been outscored 43-16 over that span.
Burger batted at least .270 with a .797 OPS in each of the last two full months, so I’m confident he is due for positive regression after entering yesterday with a .125/.222/.313 slash line over the previous seven days. One of his two hits in that span was a home run.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.