MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (8/13)
Though there are just nine games on Thursday’s MLB slate, I am still providing three MLB home run props to try and profit from. These picks are highlighted by one of the best traditions the sport has adopted in recent years, the Field of Dreams game.
Aaron Nola toes the rubber for the Phillies in that game, but he is not the only veteran starting pitcher that I am opposing. I’m also fading future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer with one of my other plays.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, August 13th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Luis Garcia Jr. (+383)
Logan Gilbert has allowed just one home run in 54 road innings this season, while his ERA away from home is 1.51 runs lower. But the righty has also allowed multiple home runs in each of his last two starts at the hitter-friendly T-Mobile Park. That spells doom when facing a Yankees lineup that has belted the most home runs in the American League this season.
Luis Garcia entered yesterday still ranked in the top 20 in the Majors in homers despite only homering once in his first game as a Yankee. He added two extra-base hits in Monday's series opener, and his 92nd percentile xSLG and .584 slugging rate against fastballs give him a great chance to go yard again this afternoon.
Adley Rutschman (+480)
Adley Rutschman made his Red Sox debut on Tuesday and promptly reached base three times. I expect him to hit his ninth homer of the season, and his first with Boston.
Following Toronto's 5-3 win on Tuesday, it had won eight of its last 10 games against Boston. However, Max Scherzer is a far cry from the other Blue Jays starting pitchers who looked dominant in that stretch. Scherzer has pitched to a 9.82 ERA and allowed nine home runs in 22 home innings.
Rutschman has a .500 or better slugging rate or xSLG against three of the four primary pitches he has seen. That includes four-seam fastballs and sliders, which opposing hitters are slugging .455 and .711, respectively, off Scherzer.
Josh Bell (+461)
No MLB pitcher has allowed more home runs this season than Aaron Nola, whose 29 long balls against are one more than Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga (though Nola has pitched 12.1 fewer innings).
Nola has allowed at least one home run in 10 of his 11 starts, and multiple home runs a whopping seven times in that span. Optimists will say he has pitched to a 3.24 ERA over his last three starts, but he has still allowed four home runs and induced 26 fly balls to 19 ground balls in that span.
No batter has faced today’s opposing starting pitcher more in their career than Josh Bell against Nola. Bell is 8-for-41 in those head-to-head matchups, but three of the eight hits have been homers.
Bell has already produced a ridiculous 1.069 OPS in August, comprised of a .375/.444/.625 slash line. His three home runs already matched July's total, and I expect him to take aim at the gettable Field of Dreams dimensions that are 335 feet down the lines.
Bell is a great value play who ranks in the 73rd percentile in xSLG. He's also on pace for a career-high 20% pull air rate, obliterating his previous single-season high of 17.8%.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.