MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (8/20)
Major League Baseball teams are receiving more off days as the season progresses. With just nine games on Thursday’s slate, I’m limiting my MLB home run props to two wagers.
The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox play a rare one-off game as a makeup of an earlier rainout, and I’m taking advantage of a familiarity edge one White Sox slugger has with Grant Holmes. I also focus on another early game between two National League rivals.
Read on for my top two MLB home run props for Thursday, August 20th.
See Today’s Full Best Home Run Bets Board >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Alec Burleson (+260)
So much attention in the National League has been paid to the ridiculously good MVP race between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong that it is easy to ignore the impressive season Alec Burleson is turning in.
Burleson entered yesterday as the MLB leader in RBI. He rounded that out with the 14th-highest batting average, second-best expected average and a top-six ranking in expected slugging rate and xwOBA.
Burleson gets a mouth-watering matchup against a pitcher he has owned over a small sample size. He is 5-for-9 with two home runs off of Michael McGreevy. The Cardinals righty is owed a massive regression, with an xERA that is almost exactly two runs worse than his actual ERA.
McGreevy’s xSLG has worsened from .383 in 2024 to .457 last year, and is now an even worse .490 this year. But the most enticing part of this wager is detailed in the following post, which highlights why Burleson benefits from being on the road:
Starting to seem like Alec Burleson might be the best all-around 1B in Major League Baseball...
As a treat, go check his expected HR per park on Savant: could have had 30+ bombs by mid-August if he wasn't playing so many games in Busch!
Only 27 years old. https://t.co/SN1Qc1lfWR
— Doc Eisenhauer (@DocEisenhauer) August 19, 2026
Miguel Vargas (+518)
Miguel Vargas had never hit more than seven homers in any of his first three Big League seasons. Clearly, he has figured something out, as he hit 16 home runs last year and is four away from doubling that previous single-season high this year.
Hitting home runs starts with elevating the baseball, and Vargas' 36.7% fly-ball rate is on pace to be a career-high. That doesn’t count the 40% fly-ball rate from when he had just 50 plate appearances in 2022.
Grant Holmes is a good bet to oblige in allowing home runs, which he has done four times over his previous four starts. Holmes also doesn't limit hard contact, with a 16th percentile hard-hit rate and third percentile average exit velocity.
There is also a value component to this wager. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering an incredible price compared to Vargas’ +330 odds at the low end of the market at other sportsbooks.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.