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MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (8/27)

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Major League Baseball teams are receiving more off days as the season progresses. With just seven games on Thursday’s slate and fewer than half the league’s teams in action, I’m limiting my MLB home run props to two wagers.

The St. Louis Cardinals boast two sluggers who are trying to accomplish a rare feat for the franchise, and one of them makes today’s home run portfolio. The other wager comes from a surprising Kansas City Royals lineup amid an impressive late-season turnaround.

Read on for my top two MLB home run props for Thursday, August 27th.

      See Today’s Full Best Home Run Bets Board >>

      Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props

      (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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      Jordan Walker (+462)

      Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker each have 96 RBI and seek to be the first Cardinals teammates with 100+ RBI in a season since Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in 2022. But with the lefty Trevor Rogers toeing the rubber, I am much higher on Walker's chances to go deep.

      Rogers has allowed 14 home runs this season, 13 of which have been hit by right-handed batters. He has also followed a stellar July (one home run allowed in 30.1 innings) with one home run allowed in four consecutive starts in August.

      Entering Tuesday, Walker was fourth in the National League in total bases and in the top 20 in the Majors in wRC+. He has also improved his 89 OPS+ over his first three seasons to 139 this year.

      Jac Caglianone (+376)

      Kansas City entered yesterday amid its first nine-game winning streak since July 2017. During the streak, the Royals averaged 6.1 runs per game, batted .304 with a .880 OPS and logged a +25 run differential. Looking slightly further out to their 10-1 record over the previous 11 games, the Royals averaged 5.6 runs per game.

      Kansas City’s two best hitters, Jac Caglianone and Bobby Witt Jr., were the catalysts for the hot streak. Entering yesterday, Caglianone was batting .403 with 11 extra-base hits and 20 RBI this month. Meanwhile, Witt Jr. was batting .329 with 21 runs scored and a .500 slugging rate in August.

      But it is Caglianone that I’m backing to go yard tonight, as Blue Jays righty Spencer Arrighetti has allowed nine of his 13 home runs to left-handed batters. In addition, Arrighetti’s .808 versus .576 OPS split between lefties and righties is glaring.

      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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