MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (9/17)
There are just nine games on Thursday’s Major League Baseball slate, the penultimate Thursday slate of the season. Because of that, I’m limiting my MLB home run props to two wagers.
The San Diego Padres are one of MLB’s hottest teams thanks to a bevy of sluggers breaking out at the right time, and my first home run pick backs their top slugger at Coors Field.
My other wager is on a Dodgers player who is hitless against today’s opposing starting pitcher but has been on a tear over the last week.
Read on for my top two MLB home run props for Thursday, September 17th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Manny Machado (+290)
The San Diego Padres were amid an eight-game winning streak earlier this week. During that torrid stretch, they averaged 6.1 runs per game with a .865 team OPS.
I’m riding with Manny Machado to continue that hot streak, even though it could be justified to pick a Rockies batter, considering five of San Diego’s eight games during the winning streak were decided by one run despite the hot offense.
After Monday’s 8-7 series-opening win against the Rockies, San Diego was 19-4 against its division rival since the start of 2025. In that span, the Padres averaged 6.8 runs/game while batting a collective .296 with 36 home runs.
In that game, Machado belted his 397th career home run as he seeks to become the third active MLB player and the 60th all-time to reach the 400-home run milestone. At the time, over his previous 24 games, he was batting .270 with a .844 OPS, five home runs and 13 RBI.
Kyle Tucker (+386)
It may have taken until September, but the Dodgers are finally getting the production they expected out of Kyle Tucker when they inked him to a four-year, $240 million contract.
After Monday’s 4-1 series-opening win against the Reds, Tucker had hit three home runs and drove in seven runs in a five-game span. That left him five home runs shy of his sixth straight 20-home run season.
Tucker is 0-for-4 in his career against Brady Singer. But the Reds righty has posted the third-highest HR/9 rate among all qualified pitchers (1.79), even though he has the best groundball rate among the bottom seven in that metric.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.