MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (4/22)
Last Wednesday’s MLB home run props column was a profitable one as I tipped Athletics slugger Shea Langeliers to homer, and he responded with this blast that still may not have landed.
Today’s home run picks provide a blend of proven sluggers due for positive regression and others who are red-hot to start the season.
With warmer weather gracing most of the country, I’m excited to dive into more of my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Pete Alonso (+328)
Today's two starting pitchers (Chris Bassitt and Michael Wacha) have allowed three home runs between them, but Pete Alonso is the only current player in either lineup who has homered off of the opposing hurler. Alonso has posted a 1.357 OPS in seven career at-bats against Wacha, and he is due for positive regression from a power standpoint after belting 34 or more home runs in six of seven seasons.
Alonso only has two home runs this season, but his 56.1% hard-hit rate is on pace for a career-high. Additionally, his 29.8% fly ball rate is only slightly worse than his 30.1% rate from last year when he hit 38 home runs.
Even if Alonso doesn’t homer off Wacha for the second time in his career, he should attack a Royals bullpen that ranks dead-last in ERA and 28th in FIP.
Jackson Merrill (+392)
The Orioles could not wait to unload Tomoyuki Sugano after the rookie struggled to keep the ball in the yard last year. Sugano allowed a whopping 33 home runs and .799 opponent’s OPS in 157 innings, with 20 of those home runs served up to left-handed batters. Overall last season, lefties slashed .273/.320/.502 against the righty hurler.
Sugano’s inability to prevent home runs is a recipe for disaster with him pitching at Coors Field. Thus, I wouldn’t put anyone off adding a multiple Padres sluggers to their home run portfolios.
Sugano has allowed a .317 OBA and two home runs in 10 innings at Coors Field this season, giving Merrill a great chance to snap out of an 0-for-16 slump.
Will Smith (+588)
Just like backing an opposing player at Coors Field is an automatic addition to my home run bets today, I also feel compelled to back a Dodgers slugger. After all, Los Angeles began this series against its most hated rival with 42 home runs, eight more than any other MLB team.
Giants righty Tyler Mahle has been feast or famine from a home run perspective. Though he has two starts without allowing a home run, he has allowed six home runs over his other two starts, including surrendering four long balls to a Reds team that ranks 25th in ISO.
Will Smith is 3-for-8 with a home run in his career against Mahle, and he is on pace for a fly ball rate of 37.3% or higher for the fourth time in the last six seasons. He was batting .322 in 31 career games at Oracle Park entering this series, and right-handed hitters always have the advantage of hitting home runs over lefties given the stadium’s layout.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.