MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (4/29)
Last Wednesday’s MLB home run props column was a profitable one as I tipped Orioles slugger Pete Alonso to homer (+328), and he responded with this opposite field blast for his third home run of the season.
Today’s home run picks provide a blend of proven sluggers among MLB’s home run leaders and others who are providing more betting value.
With warmer weather gracing most of the country and seven games in the afternoon window, I’m excited to dive into more of my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Muneta Murakami (+377)
After homering for an MLB-leading 12th time on Monday, Muneta moved into the top 10 in OPS, with 12 of his 25 hits being home runs (the other 13 were singles).
Entering the series, Murakami was hammering fastballs to the tune of a .261 batting average, .717 slugging percentage, 95.9 mph average exit velocity, and seven of his then-11 home runs were off fastballs. He also has the second-highest slugging percentage to the non-pull side (1.040) since the start of April.
After allowing eight-plus runs for the third consecutive day on Monday, the Angels ranked dead-last in the majors with a 6.97 ERA and 15th with a 1.22 HR/9 rate over the previous seven days. Now they send arguably their least consistent starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi, to the mound, who has a rotation-worst 6.21 ERA. That ERA balloons to 8.00 on the road, along with a .303 OBA.
All three of Kikuchi’s home runs allowed have come on the road, so I expect another power display from one of MLB’s top sluggers, despite the White Sox entering the series averaging 0.6 home runs per game at home compared to 1.6 home runs per game on the road.
Jazz Chisholm (+442)
Entering this series against the Rangers, Jazz Chisholm was batting .375 in the previous six games, while producing four multi-hit games over that span. By comparison, he had zero multi-hit games over the first 21.
Chisholm homered on Monday for the third time in five games, while driving in seven runs and crossing the plate seven times in that span.
Chisholm is just 1-for-10 in his career against Nathan Eovaldi, but the righty allowed a career-high tying four home runs in his last start against the Athletics, including three on his first seven pitches. That brought his HR/9 rate to a troubling 2.5, as opponents are slugging 1.000 against his four-seamer in 2026 compared to .457 in the previous season.
With Eovaldi having allowed an AL-worst nine home runs over 32 2/3 innings, that provides value for a player like Chisholm to go deep even though he doesn’t have much career success in this split.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+526)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an eye-popping .400/.419/.733 slash line in 30 career at-bats against Brayan Bello, with two of his 12 hits being home runs. Only four of Guerrero's 18 outs against the righty have been strikeouts, and it's clear that he sees the ball well out of Bello's hand, with half of his hits going for extra bases.
Bello has allowed at least one home run in four of five starts. And after surrendering five home runs in his last road start against another division rival, the Orioles, his 3.27 HR/9 rate was the second-highest among all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this year.
Guerrero hasn't finished with fewer than 23 home runs in any of the last five seasons, so his current 11-home run pace should pick up once his fly ball rate stops declining for the fourth straight year.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.