MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (4/8)
I am off to a profitable +0.84-unit start to the MLB season with my weekly best bets, NRFI, and same-game parlay columns. Now I am excited to add home run prop picks twice a week at BettingPros (Wednesdays and Thursdays). Those are a great way to diversify a betting portfolio and can get a bettor into the black real quick.
Normally I do not like to make more than one home run prop pick from the same game. However, I cannot help but be drawn to the slugfest that should ensue at Coors Field, where two pitchers that have ERAs of 12.96 and 14.73 toeing the rubber. In all, we only need one of my three home run plays to cash to ensure a profitable day.
One thing is for sure, I will not be betting on a San Diego Padres player to homer given the run Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitchers were on entering Tuesday.
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Wednesday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Cam Smith (+600)
Rockies righty Michael Lorenzen was already coming off a season where he allowed a career-high 25 home runs). He's on pace to shatter that mark in his first season in the altitude. He has surrendered two home runs in three innings in his only home start, and is pitching to a 3.7 HR/9 rate.
Cam Smith entered the series as one of the hardest swingers in baseball. Smith's 70.5 mph fast swing rate was already the eighth-highest among all batters in 2026 (min. 20 swings). He paid that off with a home run and two total extra-base hits in the series opener.
This is Smith's first time facing Lorenzen, but I am not put off by the fact that the hurler has limited current Astros hitters to a .194/.254/.420 slash line in 62 at-bats, since none of that data came from Coors Field.
Yordan Alvarez (+203)
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez got off to a hot start this season with three home runs in his first six games, a welcomed sign after homering six time in 48 games last season.
If Alvarez continues to hit for power at the top of the Astros lineup, Houston has what it takes to push Seattle for the AL West crown. Whereas many came into the season thinking the Mariners winning again was a foregone conclusion.
Since the start of the 2022 season (min 1,250 PA), Alvarez ranks fifth in batting average, third in on-base percentage, third in slugging, third in OPS+ (only behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani), first in xAVG, and second in xSLG.
Alvarez also had the fifth-highest OPS+ (164) through his age 29 season among players to debut in the integration era (since 1947, min. 2000 PA). He is a good bet to take Lorenzen deep after doing so once in six career at-bats. He has three hits total in that span.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+360)
Former Yankees righty Luis Severino takes the mound, and him seeing the pinstripes again is not a good thing for his confidence. Severino has allowed a .290/.384/.668 slash line and six home runs in just 62 at-bats to current Yankee hitters. Jazz Chisholm is responsible for two of those long balls.
Chisholm has a whopping 1.591 OPS against Severino, the highest of any player against today’s opposing starting pitcher (min. 10 at-bats). Three of his five total hits in 11 at-bats off Severino have gone for extra bases, and just one strikeout in that span suggests he sees the ball well out of the righty’s hand.
These are great odds for Chisholm to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and to pay that off with his first home run of the season.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.