MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (5/6)
Last Wednesday’s MLB home run props column backed Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami, who has since hit his 14th home run of the season. All of Murakami’s 14 extra-base hits have been home runs, which is the longest such streak to start a career since 1900.
Today’s home run picks back another young Japanese slugger, a red-hot switch-hitter from one of MLB’s top offenses, and a Bronx Bomber who is coming off a career-high 34 home runs and looks to again take advantage of the short porch in right field.
Here are my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Kazuma Okamoto (+471)
Kazuma Okamoto reached base twice in Monday’s series opener, but did snap a three-game home run streak. He belted four home runs with seven RBI over that span, while recording two-plus RBIs in five of the previous six.
It is clear how much more comfortable Okamoto is at the plate after adjusting to MLB pitching. Through the first 18 games, he was slashing .188/.263/.290 with two home runs, four RBI, a 57 wRC+, and a 32.9% strikeout percentage. However, over the next 15 games leading up to the start of this week, he was slashing .296/.387/.704 with seven home runs, 18 RBI, a 196 wRC+, 1.091 OPS, and a 24.2% K% strikeout rate.
Rays southpaw Shane McClanahan hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 15.1 innings (spanning three starts), but the red-hot Okamoto still is a great value play to go deep.
Ozzie Albies (+561)
Teammate Matt Olson hit the 300th home run of his career in Monday’s series opener against the Mariners, which overshadowed the fact that three other Braves hit solo home runs (albeit in a losing effort). One of those came from Ozzie Albies, who set a career-high by extending his hitting streak to 16 games.
Over the first 15 games of the hitting streak, Albies batted .421. with 10 extra-base hits and 13 RBI.
Seattle’s pitching staff was thought of as its biggest strength entering the season, but has so hard allowed the third-hardest contact of any staff. And Bryan Woo hasn’t been at his best, as he’s allowed a whopping six home runs over his last nine innings, and a career-worst four earned runs in the first inning (of 77 career starts) in a recent outing.
Something’s got to give, as Woo was one of four starting pitchers who didn’t allow a home run over his first five starts. Still, I am all about one’s momentum, and allowing six home runs and 13 earned runs over consecutive starts is something that should be faded, especially with the team who has hit more homers than any other in the National League.
Trent Grisham (+331)
Entering his last start against the Yankees, no MLB pitcher had allowed more home runs than Eovaldi, who was coming off allowing a career-high tying four home runs in his previous outing. That brought his HR/9 rate to 2.5, and opponents were slugging 1.000 against his four-seam fastball compared to .457 last season.
Eovaldi only allowed four hits to the Yankees in his last start, but he has still surrendered nine home runs on the season, eight of which have been to left-handed batters. Thus, I find value with Grisham, whose hard-hit rate (91st percentile) is on pace to be the best of his career. He also ranks in the 84th percentile in barrels, while posting a .497 xSLG on fastballs
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.