MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (6/17)
Our last MLB home run props on Thursday was one of our most profitable of the season, as we cashed two of our three home run wagers at +407 and +245 odds.
Today’s best home run prop wagers cover everyone from the top of the league leaders in home runs, to more value plays on either overlooked sluggers or those featured in lineups that aren’t the most prone to going yard consistently.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s loaded 14-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Yordan Alvarez (+258)
Prior to Yordan Alvarez beginning this series with the Tigers with a multi-hit game on Monday, he was amid a 21-game on-base streak. During that span, Alvarez batted .382 with nine home runs, 23 RBI, and a 1.247 OPS.
Alvarez looks to tie Kyle Schwarber for the MLB lead with his 25th home run when facing Casey Mize. The Tigers righty hasn’t pitched since May 27th because of an adductor injury.
Mize hadn’t allowed a home run in 37.1 innings prior to the injury, and left-handed hitters are slugging just .208 against him in 101 at-bats. Still, rust factors into this play, as does the fact that these are some of the best odds we’ve seen from Alvarez among his torrid stretch of hitting.
Jackson Chourio (+454)
Entering yesterday’s series opener, Jackson Chourio was batting .394 over his last 15 games. Also in that span, he belted eight home runs, with 18 runs, 21 RBI, and a 1.257 OPS. Additionally, since his first game action on May 4, these are his ranks among NL players with a minimum of 125 plate appearances:
| Category | Batting average | Extra-base hits | RBI | Slugging percentage | OPS |
| Rank | 7th (.322) | T-2nd (20) | T-9th (26) | 5th (.572) | 4th (.942) |
Chourio has also improved mightily against fastballs over the last three seasons. From 2024-25, Chourio slugged .415 against fastballs, but is up to a .586 slugging percentage off fastballs this season.
Chourio is just 1-for-6 in his career off Gavin Williams, but the righty has allowed multiple home runs in back-to-back starts.
Taylor Ward (+600)
The Mariners are widely considered to have one of the best and deepest pitching staffs in all of baseball. However, poor pitching was a big reason for losing four of five games entering yesterday’s series opener. Over that 1-4 skid, they pitched to a collective 6.80 ERA, .280 opponent’s average, and .861 opponent’s OPS.
George Kirby has been Seattle’s least effective starting pitcher of late. He is 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA in his last five starts, after going 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA in his first nine. Among all Orioles hitters, few have had the success off Kirby that Ward has had, with three of his four extra-base hits going for home runs, while totaling a .774 OPS in 32 career at-bats.
Ward just snapped a seven-game drought without an extra-base hit, but is the perfect value play to add to one’s home run portfolio to balance out the much chalkier Alvarez play.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.