MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (6/3)
Our MLB home run props from last Wednesday turned a huge profit when we cashed in on Julio Rodriguez’s unusually hot start to the season and Brandon Lowe’s home run odds to cash plays of +328 and +355, respectively.
Today, I’m targeting a Minnesota Twins pitching staff that has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, while adding two other plays on some of the top sluggers in the NL East.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Colson Montgomery (+339)
Colson Montgomery has two hits in a small five at-bat sample size against Taj Bradley, but both of those were home runs.
Montgomery is a key cog in a power-packed White Sox lineup that tied for the MLB lead in home runs in May. And those Chicago sluggers should be eager to face a Twins pitching staff that entered the week pitching to a 9.60 ERA over a five-game losing streak, while allowing two or more home runs in four of those five games.
One of those losses and poor starts came in Taj Bradley's last outing, when he and a reliever combined to allow home runs to two of Pittsburgh's most feared left-handed bats (Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz).
Bryce Harper (+432)
San Diego Padres righty Walker Buehler has had success keeping the ball in the yard of late, going 10 1/3 innings spanning two starts without allowing a home run. His last start came against the Phillies, when he took the loss despite allowing just two earned runs on three hits over 5 1/3. But I am banking on a loaded lineup seeing him twice in a short span, tilting the advantage in the batters’ favor.
Bryce Harper is 4-for-8 with a home run and three RBI in his career against Buehler. He was consistent between April and May with six and seven home runs, respectively, while his OPS floor was .893 over that span.
Harper entered this series with a poor .162/.298/.270 slash line and one home run over the previous 15 days. But I am banking on a matchup with a pitcher he has handled well in the past, which should allow him to rekindle his power stroke.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+496)
Ronald Acuna Jr.’s splits this season are eye-popping. Over the first 40 games, he had just two home runs and 11 RBI. But over the previous six games entering this week, he had belted five homers with 10 RBI.
Since the start of 2023 (min. 900 PA), Acuna ranks fourth in batting average, third in on-base percentage, sixth in slugging, fifth in OPS+, fifth in xwOBA, and eighth in hard-hit percentage.
Against non-fastballs since the start of 2023 (min. 400 PA), Acuna Jr. ranks second in batting average and third in slugging. Also, do not be surprised if Acuna Jr. is aggressive early in the count based on his success against first pitches. Since 2018 (min. 200 PA), Acuna’s .435 batting average ranks second (2nd), his 52 home runs are seventh, and his .851 slugging percentage ranks third when swinging at the first pitch.
Acuna Jr. has homered just once in 34 career at-bats against Patrick Corbin, but his overall .324 batting average in that split bodes well for his chances of success today.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.