MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (8/26)
We’ve already seen some historic things happen from an MLB home run props perspective within the last week. Randy Arozarena became the seventh player in MLB history with a leadoff and walkoff home run in the same game. In the process, he joined Pete Crow-Armstrong, who accomplished the same feat days earlier.
Instead of riding with Arozarena and backing his recent momentum, it is another red-hot Mariners slugger I’m backing to go deep today. Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Nolan Arenado (+570)
In most offensive categories, Nolan Arenado is enjoying his best season since 2022 when he led the National League in WAR. After already reaching the 2,000-hit milestone this season, he looks to wrap up another one by the end of next season, as he is 26 home runs away from the 400-home run club.
I'm giving Arenado a pass for a poor beginning to the series, especially his 0-for-3 effort on Monday, as he was 3-for-21 in his career against Kevin Gausman entering that game. While he is just 2-for-9 in his career against Matthew Boyd, the southpaw has allowed a troubling eight home runs in 25 innings in August, and 13 to right-handed batters this season.
Cal Raleigh (+375)
It seemed to be only a matter of time before Cal Raleigh started looking like any semblance of the player who hit 60 home runs last season, and now the Mariners are hoping it’s not too little too late.
Raleigh homered in four consecutive at-bats from Monday into Tuesday off of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola combined. In the process, he tied a Mariners franchise record for most consecutive at-bats with a home run. He also became the first Seattle slugger with four home runs over two consecutive games since Kenji Johjima in 2006.
The interesting thing is that Raleigh did all of that from the left side of the plate, while his better power numbers came against southpaws. He faces a left-handed pitcher in Jesus Luzardo today.
Shohei Ohtani (+264)
Shohei Ohtani has put himself in a great position to take National League MVP votes away from Pete Crow-Armstrong given what he has done at the plate of late.
Ohtani entered the week on a power binge, homering eight times and adding five doubles and a triple in his previous 24 games. His home run odds are slightly lower than what they normally are since AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed just one extra-base hit this season.
Smith-Shawver's xERA is nearly a half run lower than his actual ERA. But regression could be looming for the righty if he pitches anywhere close to the 50% and 50.8% hard-hit rates he finished the last two seasons with.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.