MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (9/30)
The MLB playoffs got underway yesterday with four thrilling Wild Card matchups, and my MLB home run props looks to all of the Game 2s on Wednesday’s slate to identify my top two home run plays.
Today’s MLB home run picks back two NL playoff veterans, both of whom overcame slow starts to turn it on at the end of the season. Read on for my top MLB home run props for Wednesday.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ronald Acuna Jr. (+568)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been a thorn in the Phillies’ side, not just this season, but his entire career. In 13 regular season games this season against Philadelphia, he slashed .380/.467/.680 with four home runs and 10 RBI. In 108 career games in this NL East rivalry, he has a .308/.392/.526 slash line with 21 home runs and 66 RBI.
Acuna’s power numbers went through the roof once he got in a groove against high velocity. Against pitches 95-plus mph through August 22, Acuna batted .183 with a .268 slugging percentage and one home run on 315 such pitches. But since August 23, those numbers increased to a .382 batting average, .765 slugging percentage, and four home runs in that split.
Cristopher Sanchez is not the easiest pitcher to take deep, as he ranked in the top 10 in the regular season in HR/9 rate (0.83). However, Acuna has a 1.000 OPS and a home run in 16 career at-bats against the southpaw. He also could take half of his at-bats against a Phillies bullpen that had a 4.60 ERA in the 13 games against the Braves this year.
Alex Bregman (+610)
Over the first 92 games, Alex Bregman slashed .235/.333/.338 with seven home runs, a 92 wRC+, and a 1.4 fWAR. But over the final 63 games of the regular season, his slash line numbers improved to .308/.388/.648 with 21 home runs, a 182 wRC+, and 4.1 fWAR.
Bregman led the Majors in slugging and wRC+ since July 11 (min. 125 PA). If you're looking for a grizzled playoff veteran to carry your betting portfolios, Bregman is appearing in the postseason for the 10th straight year, something that only five over position players accomplished.
Along with likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bregman is a main reason why Chicago ranks first among all playoff teams in runs per game, making his home run odds a great value play to go deep with the ball traveling well in the warmth of San Diego.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.