MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Wednesday (9/9)
We’ve already seen some crazy things happen from an MLB home run props perspective within the last week. Most notably, the San Diego Padres hit three consecutive home runs to start an interleague game against the New York Yankees for the second time in franchise history, and did it off Gerrit Cole no less.
One of today’s home run selections is a Padres slugger who was involved in starting that game off with fireworks. Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Fernando Tatis Jr. (+456)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has come a long way from a 50-game homerless start to the season. In those first 50 games, Tatis slashed .238/.319/.276 with a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR. Over the next 75, he slashed .306/.374/.528 with 15 home runs, a 149 wRC+, and 3.2 fWAR.
Tatis Jr.’s batted ball splits are also eye-popping. From 2023-25, he hit 61.2% of balls to the non-pull side, and logged a 13.7% pull air percentage. But in the first 75 games this season following a 50-game home run drought, he was hitting just 37.6% of balls to the non-pull side, while pulling the ball 38.8% of the time with a 13.2% pull air percentage.
The Nationals entered this series amid a seven-game road losing streak with a collective 5.14 ERA over span. Thus, Tatis Jr. is a great bet to go yard amid an entire lineup with home run value against a struggling pitching staff.
Kyle Schwarber (+264)
Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with 43 home runs, and joined Ryan Howard as just the second Phillies player with four or more 40-home run seasons.
At the time of reaching that milestone, he was proving himself to be one of the sport's most clutch hitters. Based on his "late and close stats" (seventh inning or later with one's batting team tied ahead by one or with the tying run on deck), Schwarber had four home runs in 75 plate appearances, while logging a .487 on-base percentage and .593 slugging percentage.
Schwarber is a versatile hitter, and is one of three MLB sluggers with a .550 slugging percentage or better on both fastball and off-speed pitches (min. 750 total pitches).
Jonathan Aranda (+565)
Prior to landing on the IL with a knee injury in July, Reynaldo Lopez allowed four home runs over a four-start stretch. These are great odds for him to be rudely welcomed back to the rotation by Jonathan Aranda, who entered this series with a 1.141 OPS with two home runs in the last seven days. Four of Aranda's first seven hits this month also went for extra bases.
Aranda has hit 16 of his 19 home runs this season off right-handed pitchers, and his OPS was 170 points higher in that split. He also entered the series leading all Rays hitters with a .455 BABIP in September, and a 53.8% hard-hit rate combined with a 30.8% pull percentage.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.