MLB NLCS Game 1 Picks & Predictions: Mets vs. Dodgers (Sunday)
It’s Game 1 of the NLCS between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers tonight!
The Mets will roll with Kodei Senga to start the game. However, it’s unclear just how deep he’ll be able to go in this game. At this point, the Mets would love three innings from Senga and then would likely give the ball to David Peterson for at least the next three innings.
On the other hand, Jack Flaherty will take the bump for the Dodgers. Flaherty has only had one start in the postseason. In that game against the Padres in the NLDS, he went 5.1 innings and struck out just two batters while allowing four runs. He also walked one, hit one, and allowed two home runs in that start.
Can the Mets take advantage of Flaherty the way the Padres did? Here’s our best bet for tonight’s Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 showdown.
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New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Mets will rock with Kodei Senga tonight. The right-hander only threw against eight batters in his postseason debut against the Phillies last week. Senga allowed a bomb from Kyle Schwarber but settled in nicely after that. Ultimately, Senga has only thrown against 28 batters throughout the entire year due to multiple injuries. It’s amazing he’s even pitching in the playoffs right now.
That said, if you look at his stats last season, Senga held 696 batters to a .119 ISO and wOBA of .285 with 44% of ground balls and nearly 29% of strikeouts. The walks for Senga can get high, and the Dodgers are patient. So that’s something to think about. But overall, Senga will be the better pitcher in Game 1 analytically.
He has a tough matchup against a Dodgers lineup that has hit a .200 ISO and wOBA of .364 with 16.7% of strikeouts and 10.3% of walks against righties over the last month. The Dodgers don’t have many weak spots in the lineup against righties.
However, there’s potential that David Peterson will pitch after Senga gets through two or three innings. The Dodgers’ projected lineup has more power and a higher wOBA against lefties. However, the team also strikes out more and rarely walks against lefties.
On the other hand, Jack Flaherty will take the hill for the Dodgers. Flaherty has been awful against both sides of the plate over the last month. Righties have hit a .368 ISO and wOBA of .440 over the previous month, and lefties have also contributed a .216 ISO and wOBA of .322.
Flaherty has been way worse against righties over the last 30 days and throughout the year. Therefore, batters like Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso are in line for a big power night against Flaherty.
Vientos has added a .172 ISO, and Alonso has added a .400 ISO over the last 30 days. You can also never rule out Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo’s power whenever they’re facing a vulnerable righty.
With all that in mind, the Over is the most appealing play in Game 1. The Dodgers and Mets should both find some power throughout this game.
Pick: Over 8 (-115)