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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (8/1)

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A trio of National League All-Star selections highlight my NRFI plays this Tuesday with Josiah Gray of the Nationals, Alex Cobb of the Giants and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks.

Three of the four teams in this article have pretty lackluster offensive numbers when it comes to hitting for power, and the Diamondbacks are in the middle of a pretty rough offensive stretch as well. None of the teams selected is in a noticeable advantage in regard to their offensive splits, and each game features a team with an NRFI success rate over 50% in the Brewers and Giants.

The combination of factors that I look for when making these plays gives me confidence that both of these selections will get to the window this evening. Here are my best NRFI bets for today, Aug. 1.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (35-30, -0.49 Units)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta vs. Josiah Gray

Josiah Gray will get the ball to start for the Nationals. Gray is a young RHP who earned himself a trip to the All-Star game this year by putting up the best numbers that we've seen in his big league career so far. One of the key metrics that I consider before making these plays is the ability of the opposing pitcher to avoid extra-base hits and home runs. Gray has been one of the best at avoiding hard contact this season, ranking in the 72nd percentile in hard hit% and 79th percentile in average exit velo.

Compounding on those statistics is the fact that he'll be dealing to an offensively-challenged Brewers lineup that ranks bottom-10 in nearly all important offensive categories, including 2B, HR, BA, OBP, OPS and SLG. Their splits are essentially equally bad against both RHP and LHP, so they will have no decisive advantage taking on Gray in this one.

Freddy Peralta has earned a reputation as one of the more underappreciated starting pitchers in the MLB over his last few seasons, and this year has been no different. Peralta's underlying metrics suggest that he's been a much better pitcher than his 4.46 ERA implies, as his xERA is over 0.50 points lower and good for the 60th percentile. He's a swing-and-miss artist, generating whiffs at a 90th percentile rate, leading to him striking out just shy of 30% of all batters he faces (80th percentile). His xBA, xSLG and average exit velo are all well above league average, and his recent performances over his past 100 batters faced show his numbers continuing to move in the positive direction, so he's in good form.

As I noted in my article last Friday, the Nationals have one of the starkest differentials in hitting splits between LHP and RHP, as they are much worse going against righties. The Nats also don't possess a ton of power threats throughout the lineup, ranking second to last in the MLB in HR. They will also now be without Jeimer Candelario, who was just dealt to the Cubs.

Bet: NRFI (-11o via Caesars Sportsbook)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants

Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Alex Cobb

A pair of NL All-Stars highlights this west coast showdown, with Alex Cobb of the Giants taking on Zac Gallen of the D-Backs. Cobb is undoubtedly having the best season of his long career, pitching to the tune of a 2.97 ERA. Cobb ranks in the 82nd percentile at avoiding walks and misses barrels at a rate that puts him in the 73rd percentile, which are both critical metrics to consider in the NRFI market. Though his strikeout rate won't blow you away (it never has), he's getting batters to chase his pitches in the 78th percentile. While the Diamondbacks’ offense isn't one that I like to fade on a regular basis, they are slumping right now after a particularly rough July where they averaged 3.96 runs per game (3.43 runs per game if you exclude a 16-run outburst in mid-July). This is down nearly a full run from their season-long average of 4.87 runs per game. He'll also get the benefit of pitching at Oracle Park, which has graded out as the fifth-worst HR hitting environment in baseball since 2021.

Zac Gallen is having a tremendous 2023 campaign and has admittedly become one of my favorite pitchers to back in any spot. His 3.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are both great, with his xERA still coming in above the 60th percentile. He's in the top 10% of the league in terms of walks allowed, just north of 5%. In addition, his 62nd percentile whiff% and 79th percentile chase rate have led him to a K% of 26.2%. The Giants have been a pretty middling offense in 2023 and have nearly identical numbers against both RHP and LHP, but they do rank in the bottom 10 in terms of OPS and OBP, so they're a bit lacking in the power department. Gallen also gets the benefit of pitching at Oracle Park. I foresee a low-scoring game overall, with a clean first inning on both sides.

Bet: NRFI (-130 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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