MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (6/28)
I've got two No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays coming at you for this Friday's slate of games, chosen for a wide variety of different reasons. The first game features two pretty average arms, with one offense that has underwhelmed for a large majority of the year and one offense that has seen the wheels fall off in recent weeks.
The second game features a giant pitching matchup (literally, the two starters are giants) with one pathetic offense and one offense that will be in its demonstrably worse hitting splits. Let's get both of these tickets to the window, and enter the true dog days of summer in July on a high note.
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 30-21 (+2.61 Units)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Marcus Stroman
Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for the Blue Jays this evening, looking to bounce back after a couple of rough starts against some pretty good offenses in the Red Sox and Guardians. Those outings have negatively skewed his season-long numbers, but he still has a top-half xERA of 3.89 that outperforms his actual ERA of 4.00, and his swing-and-miss stuff has still been there. He ranks in the 61st and 63rd percentiles in whiff% and K%, respectively, and his 5.6% walk rate puts him in the 82nd percentile. Kikuchi has fared very well against the Yankees this year, only allowing one earned run over 11.1 combined innings with 16 strikeouts. Speaking of the Yankees lineup, season-long numbers should be thrown out the window with this team at the moment because they look utterly lost at the plate aside from the two big threats in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Also, despite being a right-handed dominant lineup, the Yankees are in their considerably worse offensive splits against the lefty Kikuchi tonight.
Marcus Stroman will go for the Yankees tonight, as one of the only members of the pitching staff that has been able to hold it together in the swoon they are currently experiencing. Stroman has revamped himself as a pitcher in his 10th season, relying much more on location and movement to generate soft contact. Because of that, his swing-and-miss numbers aren't great and his hard-hit metrics won't blow you away, either. He has been able to outperform those expectations consistently, though, currently rocking a 3.15 ERA and turning in quality start after quality start. He'll be up against a Blue Jays lineup that has been quite the enigma this season, unquestionably a bottom-half offense that ranks 20th or worse in batting average (AVG), on-base plus slugging (OPS), slugging percentage (SLG) and home runs. Stroman has also pitched very well against Toronto this season, nearly mirroring Kikuchi's performances with only two earned runs allowed over 11.1 innings.
Bet: NRFI (-113 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Bailey Ober
Mariners right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert is sneakily having an incredible season, currently sitting in the top five for American League Cy Young odds. Though his record is only 5-4, his 2.71 ERA and 0.89 WHIP are both stellar. His xERA sits in the 80th percentile while his xBA sits in the 70th percentile, and he ranks among the top half of all pitchers in nearly every other advanced metric. Specifically, he ranks in the top third of pitchers in K% and hard-hit% while raking above the 80th percentile in whiff% and walk rate. His effectiveness stems from his incredible extension off the mound (100th percentile) and his ability to throw very hard, which does not leave much time for his opposition to react to his pitches. Though the Twins offense has been productive this season, they are significantly worse hitters against righties and Gilbert has shown to be a better pitcher at home than on the road. I have no problem backing him here, as I expect his great season to continue with another quality start tonight.
The tall righty Bailey Ober toes the slab for Minnesota tonight. While his 4.50 ERA might suggest he's in the middle of a rough season, his underlying numbers tell a different story. For starters, his xERA outperforms his actual ERA by nearly 0.75 points, and his xBA of 0.234 puts him in the 62nd percentile. He falls just shy of the 70th percentile in both whiff% and K%, and his chase rate ranks in the 79th percentile. His hard-hit numbers have been fine as well, ranking in the 60th percentile in hard-hit% and 68th percentile in average exit velocity. His walk rate qualifies for the top quartile of all pitchers. Like Gilbert, he has an insane extension off the mound (96th percentile). The reason the aforementioned Gilbert only has a 5-4 record on the season is that the Mariners have a dreadful offense that could be argued as being in the bottom five in the league, as they rank 25th in on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and SLG while ranking second-worst to only the White Sox in AVG. This game will also be played at Seattle's T-Mobile Park, which ranks dead last in all of baseball in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors since 2022.
Bet: NRFI (-140 @ FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: