MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (4/14)
Monday brings another loaded MLB slate of games as we dive into our top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions. We have 10 games on the Monday schedule with plenty of ways to go for our NRFI predictions.
If you're unfamiliar with NRFI bets, they're pretty simple. We're betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must throw a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Without further ado, let's get to my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, April 14th.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Brad Lord vs. Paul Skenes
Happy Paul Skenes Day. Let's celebrate the weekly baseball holiday by backing the Pittsburgh Pirates ace to anchor our first NRFI pick against the Washington Nationals.
Skenes is actually off to a slower start than expected with a 3.44 ERA through three appearances, including five runs allowed last time out. However, we're just focused on the first inning. On that note, Skenes has tossed a scoreless opening frame in all three of his starts with only one hit allowed.
This continues a trend from last season when Skenes was dominant early in starts. The Pirates right-hander boasted an 18-5 NRFI record (78.3%) in 2024. He had a 1.96 ERA, .220 batting average allowed and a 33:4 K:BB ratio across his first innings as well.
Meanwhile, Nationals rookie starter Brad Lord is more of a wild card to get the job done. On the one hand, Lord is unproven with this being just his second MLB start. He threw three scoreless innings against the Dodgers in his first start last week, though. He also had a 2.43 ERA across 25 Minor League starts last season.
Looking back at last year, Lord brings a strong NRFI track record to the table. The right-hander tossed a scoreless first inning in 22 out of 25 starts in the Minors in 2024. Though we can't expect him to regularly repeat that success, it's still encouraging. Plus, Lord features a slightly unique delivery and a 96 miles per hour (MPH) fastball that can throw off hitters.
Either way, today's matchup favors the young Washington pitcher. The Pirates have scored only two runs in the first inning all season, which is tied for the fewest in the league. In the opening frame, the offense is batting just .122 (29th) with a .191 wOBA (28th) and a 28.3% strikeout rate (24th). Pittsburgh is also 11-5 to the NRFI this year, tied for the league's best mark.
Pick: NRFI (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Sonny Gray
Our second NRFI pick today brings us to an interleague matchup between the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals. The starting pitchers in this game immediately point to a scoreless first inning with a pair of veterans on the mound.
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray posted a 23-5 NRFI record last year (82.1%) with a .198 batting average allowed and 36 strikeouts across his 28 first innings. Gray also tossed a scoreless opening frame in 14 out of 15 home starts a season ago. Plus, the right-hander had a 2.79 ERA at home compared to a 5.20 ERA on the road.
Gray is already off to solid NRFI trends this season. He's thrown a scoreless first inning in two out of three starts thus far. The only run and hit allowed came on a solo homer to Mike Trout (totally understandable). Gray gets a favorable matchup against a Houston offense that's batting .149 in the first inning (28th in MLB) with a .188 wOBA (29th) and 31.4% strikeout rate (28th).
Meanwhile, Astros starter Framber Valdez has encouraging first-inning numbers as well. Last year, the lefty tossed a scoreless opening frame in 25 out of 28 starts (89.3%) with a 2.25 ERA and .235 batting average allowed in his first innings. Valdez has a 2-1 NRFI record so far this season. He also has a pair of shutout outings under his belt, including six innings of two-hit ball last time out.
St. Louis has scored only four first-inning runs this season, which is 26th in the Majors. The Cards also have just a .297 wOBA in the first inning (21st). The Astros and Cardinals are two of the lowest-scoring offenses in the first inning. Considering the two starters, the NRFI has a strong chance at cashing.
Pick: NRFI (-132 on FanDuel Sportsbook)