MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (4/28)
Monday's MLB slate is slightly smaller, with eight scheduled games. There are still plenty of ways to go for our top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you're unfamiliar with NRFI bets, they're pretty simple. We're betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must throw a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Let's focus on the Tigers vs. Astros and the Yankees vs. Braves matchups. Without further ado, let's get to my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, April 28th.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Ronel Blanco
The Tigers and Astros start a three-game series on Monday, as we focus on our first NRFI pick. The starting pitching matchup pits Detroit's Jack Flaherty against Houston's Ronel Blanco. This pair of starters points to a scoreless first inning.
Flaherty has yet to allow a run in the first inning through five starts this season. He's also allowing just a .067 batting average in his opening frames thus far. This continues a trend from last year when Flaherty posted a 22-6 NRFI record (78.6%) with a .214 batting average allowed in the first inning.
The Tigers' starter should have success early against Houston, which has one of the worst first-inning offenses in the Majors this season. The Astros have scored only six runs in the first inning all year, the league's second-lowest. In the opening frame, they have just a .216 wOBA (30th in MLB) and .198 batting average (28th) with a 5.1% walk rate (28th).
Meanwhile, Blanco brings in a strong NRFI track record as well. The Houston right-hander has thrown a scoreless first inning in four of his five starts so far this season, with a .177 batting average allowed in the frame. Blanco had a 21-8 NRFI record last year, including 11-4 at home.
While the Tigers do have a strong first-inning offense this season, let's trust Blanco's impressive NRFI stats over the past two years combined. He's tossed a scoreless opening frame in all three home starts this year and can do it again today.
Furthermore, Houston is 10-5 to the NRFI at home this season, the second-best rate in the league. The Tigers and Astros are also a combined 33-22 to the NRFI this year (60%).
Pick: NRFI (-118)
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Will Warren vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
Our second NRFI pick today brings us to an American League East matchup between the Yankees and Orioles. Both offenses point to a higher-scoring game overall, and it should get going early on. Let's back the YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) in this divisional battle.
Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano has struggled mightily in the first inning this year. He's coughed up six total first-inning runs across his five starts, including three in his latest outing. Sugano has an ugly 10.80 ERA and a .348 batting average allowed in the opening frames.
The Baltimore right-hander has given up a first-inning run in three of his five starts already. Opposing hitters have Sugano's number early. Plus, he has a poor 5.82 FIP on the season with six homers allowed across his five outings.
Sugano faces a potent Yankees lineup that boasts an elite first-inning offense. New York's .443 wOBA, 199 wRC+ and 1.042 OPS in the opening frame all lead the Majors this season. The offense has also scored 22 first-inning runs, which is tied for the second-most in the MLB.
On the other side, Baltimore can get to Yankees starter Will Warren at home. Warren has a perfect 5-0 NRFI record thus far, but he seems bound to give up a first-inning run soon. The righty has a 5.79 ERA in the second inning and a 9.00 ERA in the third inning. It may be a matter of time until some of those runs start coming in the opening frame.
As for the Orioles, they also have a strong first-inning offense. The O's have a .362 wOBA (eighth) and 143 wRC+ (sixth) with just a 2.8% walk rate (first) in the first inning thus far. When facing right-handers in the opening frame, Baltimore has a .416 wOBA (fourth) and .290 batting average (sixth).
The cherry on top here is that we have two teams near the top of the YRFI rankings this season. New York has a 17-11 YRFI record (tied-fourth) while Baltimore is 16-11 (tied-sixth). Combined, the Yanks and O's are 33-22 to the YRFI for a 60% hit rate.
Pick: YRFI (-138)