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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (8/12)

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First-inning offense has picked up across MLB in recent weeks. However, the adage is that good pitching beats good hitting and there are a few pitchers I am willing to trust with my NRFI (No Run First Inning) bets on Monday.

Here are a pair of my favorite NRFI bets for Monday, August 12.

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Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks

(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)

Chicago Cubs (-120) at Cleveland Guardians (+100) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)

Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs. Ben Lively

Two of this season's best first-inning pitchers square off when Ben Lively and the Cleveland Guardians host Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs.

Exactly 151 pitchers have made at least 10 starts this season. Lively and Imanaga both rank in the top 12 in on-base percentage allowed in the first inning. They are also both in the top 15 in terms of weighted on-base percentage allowed in the first inning.

It should be no surprise then that Lively and Imanaga have combined to post a 36-5 record to the NRFI thus far in 2024.

I believe that using season-long offensive data can be misleading considering most lineups look different after an active MLB trade deadline. So here are some data points that I consider more relevant.

The Chicago Cubs have faced nine right-handed starters since the return of Cody Bellinger and the acquisition of Isaac Paredes. They have scored first-inning runs in three of nine games while posting a .206 batting average. All of their first-inning runs have been a direct result of home runs. The good news is that Lively has not allowed a first-inning home run in any of his 20 starts this season.

The opposite dynamic holds for the matchup between Imanaga and the Guardians hitters. All three of Imanaga's NRFI losses this season have come via the long ball. However, Cleveland only has one homer all season long in the first inning against a left-handed pitcher. That came via Steven Kwan on April 26.  

As long as Lively and Imanaga can keep the ball in the yard, I like both pitchers to toss up first-inning zeros on Monday night. I would play this up to -120 if you do not have access to Bet365 Sportsbook.

Bet: NRFI (-115 via Bet365 Sportsbook)

Atlanta Braves (-115) at San Francisco Giants (-105) | O/U 6.5 (-125/+105)

Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Blake Snell

Anytime we see a game with an implied total under seven runs, it is an NRFI candidate. Such is the case on Monday night when reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell faces off against this year's favorite, Chris Sale.

Since returning from injury on July 9, Snell has posted six straight scoreless first innings. He has only allowed five total runs over those six outings.

He also has a favorable history against the top of Atlanta's order. Snell has held Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson to a .214 (6-for-28) lifetime batting average. While that includes a pair of home runs, it also includes a dozen strikeouts.

With the way Snell has been dealing of late, I am not going to bet against him. I expect him to hold Atlanta off the scoreboard in the first inning.

San Francisco has been hot offensively of late against left-handed pitching. However, a lot of that damage has been against the likes of the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies. Scoring against Chris Sale will be a tougher task.

The Giants are a heavy platoon team, so it is hard to say exactly what their lineup will look like on Monday night. I suspect it will be Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Michael Conforto, and Matt Chapman at the top. Sale has held that quartet of hitters to a combined 3-for-17 mark with six strikeouts.

This NRFI is heavily juiced at -145. However, I still think it is a solid bet given the caliber of pitchers involved.

Bet: NRFI (-145 via Caesars Sportsbook)

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