MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (8/4)
Monday’s MLB slate features 13 games on the baseball schedule. We have many ways to go for our top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions.
If you’re unfamiliar with MLB NRFI picks, they’re pretty simple. We’re betting on whether or not any runs will be scored in the first inning by either team. Both starting pitchers must throw a scoreless first inning for the bet to cash.
Without further ado, let’s get to my favorite MLB NRFI picks for Monday, August 4.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Tyler Glasnow
Today's first NRFI pick features a late-night matchup between the Cardinals and Dodgers. We have two veteran pitchers on the mound as Sonny Gray starts for St. Louis and Tyler Glasnow goes for Los Angeles. This game features multiple trends and stats pointing to a scoreless first.
Gray is having an up-and-down season with a 4.38 ERA. However, his 3.09 FIP and 2.95 xFIP are much lower and suggest he's been unlucky at times. The right-hander has a shaky 5.40 ERA over his last eight starts, but he also owns a 2.79 FIP in this stretch. Gray looks poised for some positive regression moving forward.
Either way, all we care about is the first inning. Gray has a solid 16-6 NRFI record this year, including 9-2 in his last 11 starts. He also boasts an impressive 31.1% strikeout rate in the opening frame.
The Cardinals' starter brings in a history of NRFI success. Gray tossed a scoreless first inning in 82% of starts last year, 88% in 2023, and 88% in 2022. Plus, he owns a career 77% NRFI rate.
Today, Gray will face a Dodgers offense that's batting .217 in the first inning over the past month (28th in MLB). Los Angeles also has a 35.7% K rate in the first frame since the All-Star break (28th). Meanwhile, Gray has a 2.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers. He faced them in June and tossed six shutout innings.
On the other side, Glasnow should hold serve to help cash the NRFI. He has a 3.38 ERA in nine starts so far this season for LA. Since returning from injury, the righty owns a 2.45 ERA over his last four starts.
More importantly, Glasnow has pitched a scoreless first inning in eight of nine starts this year. He's also held hitters to a .103 batting average and .188 OBP in the frame. Glasnow had a 19-3 NRFI record last season (86%) and boasts an elite 88% NRFI mark over the past three seasons combined. He also has a career 77% NRFI rate as a starter.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are batting just .176 in the first inning since the All-Star break (27th in MLB). They've also scored only one first-inning run in this stretch, spanning 16 games. Plus, St. Louis ranks dead last in the majors in first-inning runs scored overall this season.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Slade Cecconi vs. Sean Manaea
Let's now focus on an interleague game between the Guardians and the Mets. At first glance, the starting pitching matchup here doesn't exactly scream NRFI. Yet, a deeper dive into the trends and offensive stats on both sides tells a different story.
Slade Cecconi gets the start for Cleveland. The right-hander has a decent 3.77 ERA, but a couple of bad outings elevate that number. He's allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts coming in.
Notably, Cecconi has tossed a scoreless first inning in 11-of-13 starts this year. He's allowing just a .178 batting average in the opening frame as well. This continues a trend for Cecconi, who had a 12-1 NRFI record last year with a 0.54 WHIP in the frame. He also boasts a career 87% NRFI rate.
Cecconi will face a New York offense that's batting .192 in the first inning since the All-Star break (24th in MLB). The Mets also have just a .208 BA in the frame over the past month (29th). It's a good spot for Cecconi, who owns an impressive 2.57 ERA on the road this year.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea toes the rubber for the Mets. The veteran has a 1.93 ERA across his three starts so far this year. As for the first inning, Manaea has a 2-1 NRFI record with a 0.67 WHIP and 54.5% strikeout rate in the frame. It's a small sample size, but still a good sign.
It helps that Manaea posted a 26-6 NRFI record last year (81%) with just a .173 batting average allowed in the first inning. Plus, the left-hander boasts a dominant 16-2 NRFI mark (89%) at home over the past two seasons with New York. He also has a career 74% NRFI rate.
Manaea should post a zero in the opening frame at home tonight. The Guardians rank 24th in the Majors in first-inning runs scored this season. They also have a subpar .282 wOBA vs. lefties in the first inning this year (27th in MLB).
Pick: NRFI (-110)