MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (9/16)
Last week I went 0-2 on my No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets column. It was only the second time I have had a sub-.500 record since the middle of May. Hopefully, that means we're doing something right in general. The ironic part is that this week, I am backing two of the same pitchers as I did last week. Both of the pitchers involved did their parts a week ago, but the other side killed both NRFIs. Let's hope for some better results this time around. I added a third game that I like as well.
Here are three of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, September 16.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Oakland Athletics (+158) at Chicago Cubs (-188) | O/U 8 (-102/-120)
Starting Pitchers: Joey Estes vs. Shota Imanaga
My first NRFI bet for Monday is on the game between the Oakland Athletics and Chicago Cubs. Shota Imanaga takes the mound for Chicago against Joey Estes. Admittedly, this is an NRFI bet skewed towards one side of the scale. But I still think there is some value here.
Let's start with Imanaga. He is 23-4 to the NRFI this season, including a 12-2 mark at Wrigley Field. Imanaga has held opponents to a .125 batting average at home in the first inning this year. Over the last month, Oakland has faced seven left-handed starters. They have not scored a first-inning run in any of those games. Imanaga should be able to get us off on the right foot in this NRFI bet.
Joey Estes is 8-3 to the NRFI on the road this year. That includes three straight scoreless first innings. He has no real history with Cubs hitters. Estes struck out Isaac Paredes in his only at-bat when Paredes was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Chicago has been one of the better offenses in the first inning of late. They have the eighth-highest wRC+ over the last 30 days when facing right-handed pitchers. However, a big part of their success has been the ability to draw walks. Cubs hitters have posted a 14.1% walk rate in this split - an area in which Estes has excelled.
Estes has walked only 4.9% of hitters this season. That is the 12th-lowest walk rate among 122 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year. (For what it's worth, Imanaga's 3.9% rate is the sixth-lowest.) If Estes can maintain his command, I like the chances of him getting through the first inning unscathed.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-128 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) at St. Louis Cardinals (+118) | O/U 7 (-120/-100)
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Andre Pallante
This National League Central showdown features two young hurlers who have helped bettors cash many NRFI bets this season. Both starters have also had success against their respective opponents.
Andre Pallante gets the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals. He is 13-4 to the NRFI this year, including a 7-2 home record. Pallante is also 2-0 to the NRFI when facing the Pittsburgh Pirates this season.
It should come as no surprise Pallante has good numbers versus hitters he is most likely to face in Monday's first inning. Pallante has held the trio of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz to a combined 4-for-20 (.200) lifetime mark. The most likely 4-5 hitters for Pittsburgh would be Andrew McCutchen and Nick Gonzales. That pair is 2-for-14 lifetime against Pallante.
Pallante pitches to contact but possesses a 98th-percentile ground ball rate and 97th-percentile barrel rate. Those traits should play well against the Pirates on Monday. Over the last 30 days, Pittsburgh has the fifth-lowest batting average (.197) and third-lowest wRC+ (66) versus right-handed pitchers in the first inning.
On the other side for the Pirates is Paul Skenes. Skenes is 15-5 to the NRFI, including a win last Monday. Like Pallante, Skenes has a 2-0 NRFI record against his Monday opponent. Skenes retired all three Cardinals hitters in order on both occasions.
The Cardinals have put the ball in play over the past month in the first inning, but it has not resulted in many runs. St. Louis has the lowest first-inning ISO (.069) and fourth-lowest wRC+ (74) in that stretch, which has resulted in a 25-5 NRFI record on offense. Skenes should be able to add another zero to that record on Monday.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-140 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox (+160) at Los Angeles Angels (-190) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Jonathan Cannon vs. Reid Detmers
My final NRFI bet for Monday is a lot like my first for a couple of reasons. First and foremost is the sense that it appears to be a bit one-sided. As was the case in that one, I think there is enough value for me to trust both sides of this NRFI equation.
The Los Angeles Angels host the Chicago White Sox on Monday night. Reid Detmers is on the bump for the Angels, while Jonathan Cannon starts for the White Sox.
Detmers is a perfect 14-0 to the NRFI this year. I do not expect that streak to be broken at the hands of Chicago. The White Sox have been the worst offense in the Majors this year. Their first-inning exploits are not much better.
Since August 1, Chicago has had a 52 wRC+ in the first inning against left-handed pitchers. Included in that metric is a massive 33.9% strikeout rate. Detmers has posted a 38.3% strikeout rate in two starts since being recalled from the Minor Leagues. I am confident in Detmers' ability to keep the White Sox off the scoreboard early in this game.
I cashed an NRFI on August 19 involving Jonathan Cannon. Many of the same things I said then apply to Monday's game. Cannon has gone 4-1 since that game, bringing his season-long NRFI record to an impressive 14-4.
The Los Angeles Angels are tied with the Chicago Cubs in first-inning wRC+ versus right-handers over the past 30 days. But, like Chicago, Los Angeles has benefited from a high walk rate. Their 11.4% mark in this split is the fifth-highest across the Majors. Cannon has walked just 5.9% of hitters across nine road starts this year.
Provided Cannon can maintain his solid command, I like him to keep this game scoreless after the first inning.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-120 at Bet365)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: