MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (9/2)
Monday may be Labor Day, but the work never stops when it comes to grinding out some NRFI (No Run First Inning) bets.
There are 11 games on the Major League Baseball schedule, including several intriguing NRFI matchups.
Here are three of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, September 2.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
St. Louis Cardinals (+145) at Milwaukee Brewers (-175) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Andre Pallante vs. Freddy Peralta
I am going to start with the first game of the day. The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals in a matchup of National League Central rivals. Freddy Peralta and Andre Pallante are the respective starting pitchers for each team.
Freddy Peralta is not the strongest NRFI pitcher out there this year. He enters Monday's matinee with an 18-9 record to the NRFI. However, a few things are going in his favor.
Peralta is riding a season-high four-game NRFI streak into this game. He is also 3-0 to the NRFI against the Cardinals this season. Peralta has shut out St. Louis completely in two of those three starts.
The Cardinals offense has struggled to get out of the gate early in recent weeks. They have scored a first-inning run in just one of their last 14 games. Twelve of those 14 games were started by right-handed pitchers. I trust Peralta to toss an early zero on Monday afternoon.
Andre Pallante may not be as well-known as Peralta, but he has been a solid pitcher for St. Louis. Pallante is 12-3 to the NRFI overall this season. He is 6-1 on the road, including five straight scoreless first innings.
Milwaukee's offense enters Monday's matchup with the longest NRFI streak in the Majors. The Brewers have failed to push a first-inning run across in 13 consecutive ballgames. Ten of those 13 games were started by right-handers.
This NRFI bet is as high as -150 on Bet365 Sportsbook. That feels a bit steep, but -125 is a solid price given the information at hand.
Bet: NRFI (-125 via BetMGM)
Seattle Mariners (-140) at Oakland Athletics (+115) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Osvaldo Bido
My second NRFI bet for Monday is another divisional matchup. This time we head out West, where Osvaldo Bido and the Oakland Athletics host Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners.
Bido has been a pleasant surprise for Oakland since being called up from Triple-A in June. The 28-year-old has a 3.21 ERA and 2.61 xERA in 56 innings. Bido is also 7-1 to the NRFI this year. His lone loss was against the Los Angeles Dodgers, so we'll cut him a bit of slack on that one.
On the other side is Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has been one of the best first-inning pitchers in the Majors this year. He is 24-3 overall to the NRFI in 2024. Gilbert has held eight straight road opponents scoreless in the first inning dating back to May.
Oakland's offense has been hot of late, led by Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker. Though Gilbert has never faced Butler, he has been outstanding against the rest of the Oakland hitters he is likely to see in the first inning on Monday.
Rooker and JJ Bleday are a combined 1-for-16 versus Gilbert in their careers. If anyone gets on base, Shea Langeliers and Seth Brown are the two hitters most likely to occupy Oakland's cleanup spot. Langeliers is 1-for-11 with four strikeouts against Gilbert, while Brown is 1-for-18 with six punchouts.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via BetMGM)
Boston Red Sox (+110) at New York Mets (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello vs. Luis Severino
My final NRFI bet for Monday takes place in New York, where the Mets host the Boston Red Sox. Luis Severino squares off against Brayan Bello on the mound.
Luis Severino has had a solid bounceback season in his first year as a Met. That resurgence includes a stellar 24-2 NRFI record. The last time Severino allowed a run in the first inning was back on May 31. I anticipate he will keep that streak intact on Monday night and keep Boston off the board in the first inning.
Brayan Bello has been up and down from a first-inning standpoint this year. He enters Monday's tilt with a 17-8 overall NRFI record. His biggest asset has been his ability to generate strikeouts. Bello has struck out 27.3% of first-inning hitters in his 12 road starts this year. That should play well in this matchup.
Over the past four weeks, the Mets have struck out in 30.4% of their first-inning plate appearances when facing right-handed pitching. That is the second-highest rate in the Majors in this split.
Even if Bello allows some traffic on the basepaths, I believe he can help us cash our final NRFI bet of the day.
Bet: NRFI (-111 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: