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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/26)

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On this Friday’s full slate of games, I’m targeting two games for the NRFI market featuring 4 relatively young pitchers that have plenty of potential and have performed very well in 2023. Coincidentally, I have selected both the first game on the slate with an afternoon game in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field and the nightcap in Seattle. These games both represent the lowest totals on the board with a consensus line of seven total runs, and I believe that the starting pitchers and offensive caliber of these teams are an accurate reflection of those low totals.

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Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (17-12, +1.83 Units)

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-140 DraftKings)

This matchup features two of the most promising young pitchers in the National League, with Justin Steele of the Cubs facing off against Hunter Greene of the Reds. Steele has incredible numbers that are backed up by his advanced metrics, posting a 6-1 record with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He’s debatably been the best starting pitcher in all of MLB in terms of generating weak contact, as he ranks in the top 20th percentile in both barrel% and xSLG, and he ranks in the 96th and 97th percentiles in average exit velo and hard hit%, respectively. His xERA is just a shade over 3, good for the 80th percentile, and he’s walking less than 10% of the batters that he faces. I love his matchup against this Reds lineup that does not boast a lot of power, ranking in the bottom 10 in baseball in OPS, SLG, and HR.

Hunter Greene, on the other hand, has not necessarily had the same success that Steele has had in terms of on-field performance, but his stuff is nasty, and his fastball is as electric as you’ll find from a starting pitcher across the MLB. His fastball ranks at the 98th percentile, resulting in K% and whiff% that rank 88th and 89th percentiles, respectively. He’s had a tendency to get hit hard when the fastball is elevated and catches too much of the plate, but his xERA and xBA both rank around league average, so I think he’s due for some positive regression in that department. He’ll be catching the Cubs in their inferior offensive splits against RHP, as their BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS are all higher against LHP. Wrigley Field plays around league average in most offensive ballpark factors but actually ranks fifth-worst in the number of doubles hit over the past 3 seasons, so we may get a little extra help avoiding extra-base hits to give us a clean 1st inning.

Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-135 @ Bet365)

Mitch Keller, RHP for the Pirates, is probably the best pitcher in baseball that you’ve heard the least about, quietly building a season that’s worthy of Cy Young consideration, in my opinion. He’s 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA (2.82 xERA is phenomenal, as well) and a 0.97 WHIP. His metrics tell you that his numbers aren’t a fluke, and they’re as good as you can find across the board. He ranks in the 79th percentile or better in average exit velo, hard hit%, xBA, xSLG, xERA, K%, and BB%. The Mariners have been a pretty below-average offense in 2023, ranking in the bottom 10 in BA, SLG, OBP, and OPS, and they have pretty negligible splits against RHP/LHP, so they don’t gain any advantage facing the RHP Keller here. I love his matchup, and I expect him to get off to a good start in the 1st.

George Kirby of the Mariners has been very good in his own right this season with numbers that are very comparable to that of Keller, going 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA (2.98 xERA is great) and a WHIP of 1.01. It’s tough to debate that anyone in the MLB has better command and control than Kirby, as he walks an astounding less than 3% of the batters he faces, good for the 99th percentile. Like Keller, he’s not getting hit hard, ranking in the top 30th percentile in average exit velo, hard hit%, barrel%, xERA, and xSLG. The Pirates are a pretty average MLB offense, but they do rank 25th in HR, and they’ll be in their worse offensive splits against the right-hander Kirby. T-Mobile Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly ballpark as well, ranking dead last in offensive ballpark factors since 2021, well below average in terms of HR and XBH, and well above average in terms of Ks.

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